Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Foreman Field
Norfolk, VA
·
Turf
·
20,118 cap
Buffalo✈ 441 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Old Dominion,
while Game Control favors Buffalo.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Old Dominion wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Buffalo wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -13
O/U 50.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Old Dominion
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2021 Schedule
Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Buffalo vs Wagner | -44.0W69–7 | 54.5 | W69–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Buffalo at Nebraska | +13.5L3–28 | 54.0 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina | +14.0L25–28 | 58.0 | L25–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Buffalo at Old Dominion | -13.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +7.0L17–24 | 59.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Buffalo at Kent State | +7.0L38–48 | 66.0 | L38–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Buffalo vs Ohio | -7.5W27–26 | 54.5 | W27–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Buffalo at Akron | -13.5W45–10 | 58.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -13.5L44–56 | 51.5 | L44–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/9 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.0L18–45 | 58.0 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Buffalo vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L27–33 | 59.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Buffalo at Ball State | +6.0L3–20 | 59.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
Old Dominion 2021 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Old Dominion at Wake Forest | +32.5L10–42 | 61.5 | L10–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Old Dominion vs Hampton | -21.5W47–7 | 55.0 | W47–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Old Dominion at Liberty | +26.5L17–45 | 53.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Old Dominion vs Buffalo | +13.0L34–35 | 50.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Old Dominion at UTEP | +5.5L21–28 | 48.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Old Dominion at Marshall | +21.5L13–20 | 62.0 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky | +13.5L20–43 | 66.5 | L20–43 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech | +4.0W23–20 | 52.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Old Dominion at Florida International | -3.0W47–24 | 50.0 | W47–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Old Dominion vs Florida Atlantic | +6.5W30–16 | 48.0 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee | +3.0W24–17 | 48.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Old Dominion vs Charlotte | -8.5W56–34 | 55.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/20 | Old Dominion vs Tulsa | +7.5L17–30 | 55.0 | L17–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Buffalo
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Buffalo
3.8 — 93.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kirk Campbell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓