Sat, Dec 4 2021
·
Week 14
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
·
Turf
·
100,000 cap
Baylor✈ 82 miSame TZ
Oklahoma State✈ 233 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oklahoma State,
while Game Control favors Baylor.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Baylor wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -7
O/U 45.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Baylor
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Baylor 2021 Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Baylor at Texas State | -13.5W29–20 | 52.5 | W29–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Baylor vs Texas Southern | -44.5W66–7 | 53.0 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Baylor at Kansas | -17.0W45–7 | 48.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Baylor vs Iowa State | +7.0W31–29 | 46.0 | W31–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Baylor at Oklahoma State | +3.5L14–24 | 47.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Baylor vs West Virginia | -1.0W45–20 | 45.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Baylor vs BYU | -5.5W38–24 | 52.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Baylor vs Texas | -2.0W31–24 | 61.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Baylor at TCU | -7.5L28–30 | 57.0 | L28–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Baylor vs Oklahoma | +4.0W27–14 | 63.0 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Baylor at Kansas State | +2.5W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Baylor vs Texas Tech | -14.0W27–24 | 51.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Baylor vs Oklahoma State | +7.0W21–16 | 45.0 | W21–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Baylor vs Ole Miss | +1.0W21–7 | 60.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
Oklahoma State 2021 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oklahoma State vs Missouri State | -38.0W23–16 | 55.0 | W23–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oklahoma State vs Tulsa | -11.5W28–23 | 51.0 | W28–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Oklahoma State at Boise State | +3.5W21–20 | 58.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | -6.0W31–20 | 47.5 | W31–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Oklahoma State vs Baylor | -3.5W24–14 | 47.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Oklahoma State at Texas | +3.0W32–24 | 61.0 | W32–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | +7.5L21–24 | 47.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas | -28.5W55–3 | 54.5 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | -3.5W24–3 | 48.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Oklahoma State vs TCU | -11.0W63–17 | 53.5 | W63–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oklahoma State at Texas Tech | -10.0W23–0 | 55.0 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma | -4.0W37–33 | 50.0 | W37–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Oklahoma State vs Baylor | -7.0L16–21 | 45.0 | L16–21 | U | N |
| Sat 1/1 | Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame | -1.5W37–35 | 45.5 | W37–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Baylor Edge
Baylor +0.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ron Roberts
Yr 1
#1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
140–67 (68%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓