Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Air Force wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Air Force -1.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2021 Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Air Force vs Lafayette | -40.5W35–14 | 49.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Air Force at Navy | -6.0W23–3 | 40.0 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Air Force vs Utah State | -9.0L45–49 | 54.0 | L45–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Air Force vs Florida Atlantic | -3.5W31–7 | 54.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Air Force at New Mexico | -11.5W38–10 | 46.0 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -5.5W24–14 | 46.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Air Force at Boise State | +3.0W24–17 | 52.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Air Force vs San Diego State | -3.0L14–20 | 38.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Air Force vs Army | -2.5L14–21 | 37.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Air Force at Colorado State | -3.0W35–21 | 45.0 | W35–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Air Force at Nevada | -1.5W41–39 | 53.5 | W41–39 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Air Force vs UNLV | -18.5W48–14 | 49.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Air Force vs Louisville | -1.0W31–28 | 55.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
Nevada 2021 Schedule
Nevada's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Nevada at California | +2.5W22–17 | 52.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Nevada vs Idaho State | -35.0W49–10 | 56.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Nevada at Kansas State | -1.5L17–38 | 51.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Nevada at Boise State | +3.5W41–31 | 59.0 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Nevada vs New Mexico State | -28.5W55–28 | 64.5 | W55–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -14.0W34–17 | 61.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Nevada at Fresno State | +3.5L32–34 | 64.5 | L32–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | -19.0W51–20 | 58.0 | W51–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Nevada vs San José State | -11.5W27–24 | 55.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Nevada at San Diego State | +2.5L21–23 | 45.0 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Nevada vs Air Force | +1.5L39–41 | 53.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Nevada at Colorado State | -3.0W52–10 | 57.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/27 | Nevada vs Western Michigan | +7.0L24–52 | 56.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Air Force +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +11.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Air Force
12.2 — 66.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Air Force won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
104–73 (59%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 1
#1
Nevada
Jay Norvell #1
27–23 (54%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓