Sun, Oct 10 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 886 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Nevada
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Nevada entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Nevada wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Nevada wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Nevada -28.5
O/U 64.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Nevada
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2021 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | New Mexico State vs UTEP | +9.5L3–30 | 59.0 | L3–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | New Mexico State at San Diego State | +31.0L10–28 | 51.0 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +19.5L25–34 | 55.5 | L25–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | New Mexico State vs South Carolina State | -3.5W43–35 | 54.5 | W43–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | +17.0L21–41 | 63.0 | L21–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | New Mexico State at San José State | +25.5L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | New Mexico State at Nevada | +28.5L28–55 | 64.5 | L28–55 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | New Mexico State at Hawai'i | +18.0L34–48 | 62.5 | L34–48 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | New Mexico State vs Utah State | +18.0L13–35 | 72.0 | L13–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | New Mexico State at Alabama | +50.0L3–59 | 67.0 | L3–59 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | New Mexico State at Kentucky | +35.5L16–56 | 61.0 | L16–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | New Mexico State vs Massachusetts | -7.0W44–27 | 58.5 | W44–27 | O | Y |
Nevada 2021 Schedule
Nevada's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Nevada at California | +2.5W22–17 | 52.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Nevada vs Idaho State | -35.0W49–10 | 56.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Nevada at Kansas State | -1.5L17–38 | 51.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Nevada at Boise State | +3.5W41–31 | 59.0 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Nevada vs New Mexico State | -28.5W55–28 | 64.5 | W55–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -14.0W34–17 | 61.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Nevada at Fresno State | +3.5L32–34 | 64.5 | L32–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | -19.0W51–20 | 58.0 | W51–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Nevada vs San José State | -11.5W27–24 | 55.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Nevada at San Diego State | +2.5L21–23 | 45.0 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Nevada vs Air Force | +1.5L39–41 | 53.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Nevada at Colorado State | -3.0W52–10 | 57.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/27 | Nevada vs Western Michigan | +7.0L24–52 | 56.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Nevada
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Nevada
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Nevada
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +0.93
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +31.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Nevada
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Nevada
88.2 — 5.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Nevada won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Nevada with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Doug Martin #1
23–67 (26%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Doug Martin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Frank Spaziani
Yr 1
#1
Nevada
Jay Norvell #1
27–23 (54%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓