Sat, Nov 20 2021
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Clemson, SC
·
Turf
·
81,500 cap
Wake Forest✈ 176 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Clemson -3.5
O/U 57.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Clemson
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2021 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Old Dominion | -32.5W42–10 | 61.5 | W42–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wake Forest vs Norfolk State | -43.0W41–16 | 58.0 | W41–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Florida State | -4.5W35–14 | 63.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +3.5W37–17 | 71.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Wake Forest vs Louisville | -7.0W37–34 | 64.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -5.5W40–37 | 59.0 | W40–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Wake Forest at Army | -3.0W70–56 | 53.5 | W70–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -16.5W45–7 | 71.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +2.5L55–58 | 78.0 | L55–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Wake Forest vs NC State | -1.0W45–42 | 65.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wake Forest at Clemson | +3.5L27–48 | 57.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Wake Forest at Boston College | -5.5W41–10 | 64.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L21–45 | 72.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Wake Forest vs Rutgers | -17.0W38–10 | 63.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Clemson 2021 Schedule
Clemson's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Clemson vs Georgia | -3.0L3–10 | 51.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Clemson vs South Carolina State | -50.5W49–3 | 56.0 | W49–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | -27.5W14–8 | 52.5 | W14–8 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Clemson at NC State | -10.5L21–27 | 46.5 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Clemson vs Boston College | -14.5W19–13 | 46.5 | W19–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Clemson at Syracuse | -12.5W17–14 | 44.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | +3.5L17–27 | 47.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Clemson vs Florida State | -9.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Clemson at Louisville | -3.5W30–24 | 46.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Clemson vs UConn | -40.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Clemson vs Wake Forest | -3.5W48–27 | 57.0 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Clemson at South Carolina | -11.5W30–0 | 42.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Clemson vs Iowa State | -1.5W20–13 | 44.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Clemson
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Clemson
90.4 — 6.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Clemson won by 21
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
43–45 (49%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 1
#1
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
141–35 (80%)
· Yr 14 at school
OC
Tony Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brent Venables
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓