Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Clemson, SC
·
Turf
·
81,500 cap
Boston College✈ 822 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boston College
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boston College entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Boston College wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Boston College wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Clemson -14.5
O/U 46.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Clemson
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2021 Schedule
Boston College's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Boston College vs Colgate | -42.5W51–0 | 56.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Boston College at Massachusetts | -39.0W45–28 | 57.0 | W45–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Boston College at Temple | -15.0W28–3 | 55.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Boston College vs Missouri | -1.0W41–34 | 58.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Boston College at Clemson | +14.5L13–19 | 46.5 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Boston College vs NC State | +3.0L7–33 | 51.0 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Boston College at Louisville | +4.0L14–28 | 57.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Boston College at Syracuse | +6.5L6–21 | 51.5 | L6–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Boston College vs Virginia Tech | +1.0W17–3 | 51.0 | W17–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Boston College at Georgia Tech | -2.0W41–30 | 55.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Boston College vs Florida State | -3.0L23–26 | 55.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Boston College vs Wake Forest | +5.5L10–41 | 64.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | Boston College vs East Carolina | -3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
Clemson 2021 Schedule
Clemson's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Clemson vs Georgia | -3.0L3–10 | 51.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Clemson vs South Carolina State | -50.5W49–3 | 56.0 | W49–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | -27.5W14–8 | 52.5 | W14–8 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Clemson at NC State | -10.5L21–27 | 46.5 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Clemson vs Boston College | -14.5W19–13 | 46.5 | W19–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Clemson at Syracuse | -12.5W17–14 | 44.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | +3.5L17–27 | 47.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Clemson vs Florida State | -9.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Clemson at Louisville | -3.5W30–24 | 46.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Clemson vs UConn | -40.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Clemson vs Wake Forest | -3.5W48–27 | 57.0 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Clemson at South Carolina | -11.5W30–0 | 42.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Clemson vs Iowa State | -1.5W20–13 | 44.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +17.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Clemson
84.1 — 7.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Clemson won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boston College with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
9–5 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tem Lukabu
Yr 1
#1
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
141–35 (80%)
· Yr 14 at school
OC
Tony Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brent Venables
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓