Fri, Dec 31 2021
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 EverBank Field
Jacksonville, FL
·
Turf
·
67,246 cap
Wake Forest✈ 409 miSame TZ
Rutgers✈ 812 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -17
O/U 63.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Wake Forest
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2021 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Old Dominion | -32.5W42–10 | 61.5 | W42–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wake Forest vs Norfolk State | -43.0W41–16 | 58.0 | W41–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Florida State | -4.5W35–14 | 63.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +3.5W37–17 | 71.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Wake Forest vs Louisville | -7.0W37–34 | 64.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -5.5W40–37 | 59.0 | W40–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Wake Forest at Army | -3.0W70–56 | 53.5 | W70–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -16.5W45–7 | 71.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +2.5L55–58 | 78.0 | L55–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Wake Forest vs NC State | -1.0W45–42 | 65.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wake Forest at Clemson | +3.5L27–48 | 57.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Wake Forest at Boston College | -5.5W41–10 | 64.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L21–45 | 72.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Wake Forest vs Rutgers | -17.0W38–10 | 63.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Rutgers 2021 Schedule
Rutgers's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Rutgers vs Temple | -14.0W61–14 | 52.0 | W61–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Rutgers at Syracuse | -2.5W17–7 | 50.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Rutgers vs Delaware | -20.0W45–13 | 45.0 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Rutgers at Michigan | +20.0L13–20 | 50.0 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Rutgers vs Ohio State | +15.0L13–52 | 58.0 | L13–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Rutgers vs Michigan State | +4.5L13–31 | 50.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Rutgers at Northwestern | -2.5L7–21 | 45.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Rutgers at Illinois | -1.5W20–14 | 41.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Rutgers vs Wisconsin | +13.0L3–52 | 37.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Rutgers at Indiana | +6.5W38–3 | 42.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Rutgers at Penn State | +14.0L0–28 | 44.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Rutgers vs Maryland | -2.0L16–40 | 53.0 | L16–40 | O | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Rutgers vs Wake Forest | +17.0L10–38 | 63.0 | L10–38 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +0.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +31.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
43–45 (49%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 1
#1
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Gleeson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓