Wake Forest at Boston College Week 13 College Football Matchup Wake Forest at Boston College Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 27 2021 · Week 13 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
Wake Forest✈ 647 miSame TZ
41 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wake Forest
35
Boston College
28
P&R Line Wake Forest -6.5
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Wake Forest -5.5 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -5.5
O/U 64.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Wake Forest · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Boston College 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Wake Forest 2nd straight Road Game
Wake Forest 2021 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Wake Forest vs Old Dominion-32.5W42–1061.5W42–10UN
Sat 9/11Wake Forest vs Norfolk State-43.0W41–1658.0W41–16UN
Sat 9/18Wake Forest vs Florida State-4.5W35–1463.0W35–14UY
Fri 9/24Wake Forest at Virginia+3.5W37–1771.0W37–17UY
Sat 10/2Wake Forest vs Louisville-7.0W37–3464.5W37–34ON
Sat 10/9Wake Forest at Syracuse-5.5W40–3759.0W40–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Wake Forest at Army-3.0W70–5653.5W70–56OY
Sat 10/30Wake Forest vs Duke-16.5W45–771.5W45–7UY
Sat 11/6Wake Forest at North Carolina+2.5L55–5878.0L55–58ON
Sat 11/13Wake Forest vs NC State-1.0W45–4265.0W45–42OY
Sat 11/20Wake Forest at Clemson+3.5L27–4857.0L27–48ON
Sat 11/27Wake Forest at Boston College-5.5W41–1064.0W41–10UY
Sat 12/4Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh+3.5L21–4572.5L21–45UN
Fri 12/31Wake Forest vs Rutgers-17.0W38–1063.0W38–10UY
Boston College 2021 Schedule
Boston College's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Boston College vs Colgate-42.5W51–056.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/11Boston College at Massachusetts-39.0W45–2857.0W45–28ON
Sat 9/18Boston College at Temple-15.0W28–355.5W28–3UY
Sat 9/25Boston College vs Missouri-1.0W41–3458.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/2Boston College at Clemson+14.5L13–1946.5L13–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Boston College vs NC State+3.0L7–3351.0L7–33UN
Sat 10/23Boston College at Louisville+4.0L14–2857.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/30Boston College at Syracuse+6.5L6–2151.5L6–21UN
Fri 11/5Boston College vs Virginia Tech+1.0W17–351.0W17–3UY
Sat 11/13Boston College at Georgia Tech-2.0W41–3055.0W41–30OY
Sat 11/20Boston College vs Florida State-3.0L23–2655.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/27Boston College vs Wake Forest+5.5L10–4164.0L10–41UN
Mon 12/27Boston College vs East Carolina-3.052.5
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Wake Forest PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wake Forest
+0.470
Boston College
+0.427
Wake Forest Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest
+0.664
Boston College
+0.509
Wake Forest Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wake Forest
0.198
Boston College
0.148
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wake Forest Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest
+8.064
Boston College
+7.476
Wake Forest Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wake Forest
+0.877
Boston College
+0.878
Boston College Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wake Forest
69.5
Boston College
72.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wake Forest Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wake Forest Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wake Forest
4.6
Boston College
-6.0
Offense Rating
Wake Forest
16.6
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wake Forest
12.0
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Wake Forest #50
1.10
Boston College #62
1.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #55
0.90
Boston College #29
0.50
Wake Forest +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wake Forest #1
69.1
Boston College #1
47.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #16
18.7
Boston College #69
37.2
Wake Forest +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
43–45 (49%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Warren Ruggiero Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Frank Cignetti Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Tem Lukabu Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself