Matchup Prediction
Army
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Army entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Army wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Army wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Army -7.0
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Army
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Missouri 2021 Schedule
Missouri's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Missouri vs Central Michigan | -13.5W34–24 | 59.0 | W34–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Missouri at Kentucky | +5.5L28–35 | 56.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Missouri vs Southeast Missouri State | -34.5W59–28 | 59.0 | W59–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Missouri at Boston College | +1.0L34–41 | 58.5 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Missouri vs Tennessee | -2.5L24–62 | 66.5 | L24–62 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Missouri vs North Texas | -18.5W48–35 | 69.0 | W48–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Missouri vs Texas A&M | +11.5L14–35 | 59.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Missouri at Vanderbilt | -16.0W37–28 | 62.5 | W37–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Missouri at Georgia | +40.0L6–43 | 59.0 | L6–43 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Missouri vs South Carolina | -1.0W31–28 | 56.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Missouri vs Florida | +9.5W24–23 | 69.0 | W24–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Missouri at Arkansas | +14.5L17–34 | 63.0 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Wed 12/22 | Missouri vs Army | +7.0L22–24 | 54.0 | L22–24 | U | Y |
Army 2021 Schedule
Army's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Army at Georgia State | +2.5W43–10 | 50.0 | W43–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Army vs Western Kentucky | -6.0W38–35 | 52.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Army vs UConn | -34.5W52–21 | 48.0 | W52–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Army vs Miami (OH) | -7.5W23–10 | 49.0 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Army at Ball State | -10.5L16–28 | 46.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Army at Wisconsin | +14.0L14–20 | 37.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Army vs Wake Forest | +3.0L56–70 | 53.5 | L56–70 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Army vs Air Force | +2.5W21–14 | 37.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Army vs Bucknell | -51.5W63–10 | 58.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Army vs Massachusetts | -37.5W33–17 | 56.0 | W33–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Army at Liberty | +3.0W31–16 | 51.5 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 12/11 | Army vs Navy | +7.0L13–17 | 35.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/22 | Army vs Missouri | -7.0W24–22 | 54.0 | W24–22 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Army
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Army Edge
Army +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Army Edge
Army +23.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Missouri
36.6 — 37.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Army won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Army with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Eliah Drinkwitz
Yr 1
#1
DC
Steve Wilks
Yr 1
#1
Army
Jeff Monken #1
52–39 (57%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Brent Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Woody
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓