Central Michigan at Missouri Week 1 College Football Matchup Central Michigan at Missouri Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 4 2021 · Week 1 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
Central Michigan✈ 506 mi-1 hr TZ
24 34
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Central Michigan
27
CMU +13.5
Missouri
33
P&R Line Missouri -6.5
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -13.5 · O/U 59.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Missouri -13.5
O/U 59.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2021 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Central Michigan at Missouri+13.5L24–3459.0L24–34UY
Sat 9/11Central Michigan vs Robert Morris-37.5W45–053.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/18Central Michigan at LSU+19.5L21–4961.0L21–49ON
Sat 9/25Central Michigan vs Florida International-12.0W31–2755.0W31–27ON
Sat 10/2Central Michigan at Miami (OH)-2.5L17–2856.5L17–28UN
Sat 10/9Central Michigan at Ohio-5.0W30–2758.0W30–27UN
Sat 10/16Central Michigan vs Toledo+5.0W26–2353.0W26–23UY
Sat 10/23Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois-6.0L38–3956.0L38–39ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Central Michigan at Western Michigan+9.0W42–3064.5W42–30OY
Wed 11/10Central Michigan vs Kent State-2.5W54–3076.5W54–30OY
Wed 11/17Central Michigan at Ball State-2.5W37–1757.0W37–17UY
Fri 11/26Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-8.5W31–1064.0W31–10UY
Fri 12/31Central Michigan vs Washington State+5.5W24–2156.0W24–21UY
Fri 12/31Central Michigan vs Boise State+7.555.5
Missouri 2021 Schedule
Missouri's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Missouri vs Central Michigan-13.5W34–2459.0W34–24UN
Sat 9/11Missouri at Kentucky+5.5L28–3556.5L28–35ON
Sat 9/18Missouri vs Southeast Missouri State-34.5W59–2859.0W59–28ON
Sat 9/25Missouri at Boston College+1.0L34–4158.5L34–41ON
Sat 10/2Missouri vs Tennessee-2.5L24–6266.5L24–62ON
Sat 10/9Missouri vs North Texas-18.5W48–3569.0W48–35ON
Sat 10/16Missouri vs Texas A&M+11.5L14–3559.0L14–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Missouri at Vanderbilt-16.0W37–2862.5W37–28ON
Sat 11/6Missouri at Georgia+40.0L6–4359.0L6–43UY
Sat 11/13Missouri vs South Carolina-1.0W31–2856.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/20Missouri vs Florida+9.5W24–2369.0W24–23UY
Fri 11/26Missouri at Arkansas+14.5L17–3463.0L17–34UN
Wed 12/22Missouri vs Army+7.0L22–2454.0L22–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Central Michigan
+0.529
Missouri
+0.404
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
+0.794
Missouri
+0.568
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
0.216
Missouri
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
+8.207
Missouri
+7.837
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Central Michigan
+0.883
Missouri
+0.855
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Central Michigan
68.3
Missouri
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Central Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Central Michigan
-4.7
Missouri
12.1
Offense Rating
Central Michigan
15.2
Missouri
21.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Central Michigan
19.9
Missouri
8.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Central Michigan #77
0.00
Missouri #97
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #69
0.00
Missouri #127
0.00
Central Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Central Michigan #1
0.0
Missouri #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #46
0.0
Missouri #87
0.0
Central Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Missouri
76.4 — 8.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Missouri won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kevin Barbay Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Eliah Drinkwitz Yr 1 #1
DC Steve Wilks Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself