Mon, Dec 29 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Protective Stadium
Birmingham, AL
·
Turf
·
47,100 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 300 mi-1 hr TZ
App State✈ 344 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Southern
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia Southern entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia Southern wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Georgia Southern wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Southern -10
O/U 58.5
Draft Kings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2025 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia Southern at Fresno State | +2.5L14–42 | 54.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia Southern at USC | +29.0L20–59 | 61.5 | L20–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State | -3.0W41–34 | 59.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia Southern vs Maine | -22.0W45–17 | 57.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia Southern at James Madison | +14.5L10–35 | 54.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss | +3.0L35–38 | 59.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | -6.5W41–24 | 58.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Georgia Southern at Arkansas State | -1.5L24–34 | 59.5 | L24–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | Georgia Southern at App State | +4.5W25–23 | 62.5 | W25–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | -3.0W45–40 | 59.5 | W45–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion | +10.0L10–45 | 62.0 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Georgia Southern at Marshall | +10.5W24–19 | 61.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/29 | Georgia Southern vs App State | -10.0W29–10 | 58.5 | W29–10 | U | Y |
App State 2025 Schedule
App State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | App State vs Charlotte | -8.5W34–11 | 53.5 | W34–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | App State vs Lindenwood | -31.5W20–13 | 56.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | App State at Southern Miss | -3.0L22–38 | 55.5 | L22–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | App State at Boise State | +16.5L14–47 | 59.5 | L14–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | App State vs Oregon State | -1.5W27–23 | 53.5 | W27–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | App State at Georgia State | -3.0W41–20 | 55.5 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -10.5L37–45 | 48.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | App State at Old Dominion | +12.5L21–24 | 60.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -4.5L23–25 | 62.5 | L23–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | App State at James Madison | +21.0L10–58 | 53.5 | L10–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | App State vs Marshall | +3.5W26–24 | 57.5 | W26–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | App State vs Arkansas State | -1.0L29–30 | 54.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Mon 12/29 | App State vs Georgia Southern | +10.0L10–29 | 58.5 | L10–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +1.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia Southern, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 3
#1
App State
Dowell Loggains #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓