Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Duke✈ 2,374 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Duke,
while Game Control favors California.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Duke wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
California wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Duke -3.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Duke
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Duke 2025 Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Duke vs Elon | -36.5W45–17 | 51.5 | W45–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Duke vs Illinois | +2.5L19–45 | 49.0 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Duke at Tulane | +1.5L27–34 | 52.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Duke vs NC State | -3.0W45–33 | 57.5 | W45–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Duke at Syracuse | -4.0W38–3 | 59.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Duke at California | -3.5W45–21 | 54.5 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Duke vs Georgia Tech | -3.5L18–27 | 60.5 | L18–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Duke at Clemson | +4.5W46–45 | 55.5 | W46–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Duke at UConn | -7.5L34–37 | 63.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Duke vs Virginia | -5.5L17–34 | 59.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Duke at North Carolina | -6.5W32–25 | 50.5 | W32–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Duke vs Wake Forest | -2.5W49–32 | 54.0 | W49–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Duke vs Virginia | +3.5W27–20 | 58.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Duke vs Arizona State | -4.0W42–39 | 49.5 | W42–39 | O | N |
California 2025 Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | California at Oregon State | +3.0W34–15 | 51.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | California vs Texas Southern | -44.5W35–3 | 54.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | California vs Minnesota | +3.0W27–14 | 41.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | California at San Diego State | -14.0L0–34 | 47.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | California at Boston College | +6.0W28–24 | 54.5 | W28–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | California vs Duke | +3.5L21–45 | 54.5 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | California vs North Carolina | -7.5W21–18 | 45.5 | W21–18 | U | N |
| Fri 10/24 | California at Virginia Tech | +6.5L34–42 | 50.5 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | California vs Virginia | +6.5L21–31 | 52.5 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | California at Louisville | +18.5W29–26 | 48.5 | W29–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | California at Stanford | -4.5L10–31 | 47.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | California vs SMU | +13.5W38–35 | 53.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | California at Hawai'i | +1.5L31–35 | 50.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Duke Edge
Duke +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Duke
35.6 — 51.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jonathan Brewer
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jonathan Patke
Yr 2
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
42–49 (46%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Bryan Harsin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓