California at Boston College Week 5 College Football Matchup California at Boston College Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
California✈ 2,676 mi+3 hr TZ
28 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
California
27
Boston College
28
P&R Line Boston College -1
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Boston College -6 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
California wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boston College -6
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → California · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Boston College Coming off BYE 🚌 California 2nd straight Road Game
California 2025 Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30California at Oregon State+3.0W34–1551.5W34–15UY
Sat 9/6California vs Texas Southern-44.5W35–354.5W35–3UN
Sat 9/13California vs Minnesota+3.0W27–1441.5W27–14UY
Sat 9/20California at San Diego State-14.0L0–3447.5L0–34UN
Sat 9/27California at Boston College+6.0W28–2454.5W28–24UY
Sat 10/4California vs Duke+3.5L21–4554.5L21–45ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17California vs North Carolina-7.5W21–1845.5W21–18UN
Fri 10/24California at Virginia Tech+6.5L34–4250.5L34–42ON
Sat 11/1California vs Virginia+6.5L21–3152.5L21–31UN
Sat 11/8California at Louisville+18.5W29–2648.5W29–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22California at Stanford-4.5L10–3147.5L10–31UN
Sat 11/29California vs SMU+13.5W38–3553.5W38–35OY
Wed 12/24California at Hawai'i+1.5L31–3550.5L31–35ON
Boston College 2025 Schedule
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Boston College vs Fordham-35.0W66–1053.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/6Boston College at Michigan State+3.5L40–4245.5L40–42OY
Sat 9/13Boston College at Stanford-14.0L20–3044.5L20–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Boston College vs California-6.0L24–2854.5L24–28UN
Sat 10/4Boston College at Pittsburgh+6.5L7–4854.5L7–48ON
Sat 10/11Boston College vs Clemson+14.0L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 10/18Boston College vs UConn+2.5L23–3858.5L23–38ON
Sat 10/25Boston College at Louisville+25.5L24–3854.5L24–38OY
Sat 11/1Boston College vs Notre Dame+31.5L10–2555.5L10–25UY
Sat 11/8Boston College vs SMU+10.5L13–4554.5L13–45ON
Sat 11/15Boston College vs Georgia Tech+16.5L34–3661.5L34–36OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Boston College at Syracuse-2.5W34–1254.5W34–12UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
California PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
California #98
+0.356
Boston College #79
+0.327
California Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
California #78
+0.616
Boston College #66
+0.393
California Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
California #80
0.151
Boston College #126
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
California Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
California #66
+7.526
Boston College #99
+7.084
California Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
California #95
+0.831
Boston College #66
+0.847
Boston College Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
California #122
72.9
Boston College #109
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
California Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
California
5.3
Boston College
-6.0
Offense Rating
California
19.2
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
California
13.9
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
California #56
1.00
Boston College #90
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
California #80
0.67
Boston College #96
1.00
California +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? California Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
California #1
60.2
Boston College #1
49.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
California #62
26.6
Boston College #109
26.3
California +10.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Boston College
59.3 — 19.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
California won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
42–49 (46%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Bryan Harsin Yr 1 #1
DC Vacant Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 2 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself