Sat, Sep 27 2025
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
California✈ 2,676 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
California wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boston College -6
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → California
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
California 2025 Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | California at Oregon State | +3.0W34–15 | 51.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | California vs Texas Southern | -44.5W35–3 | 54.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | California vs Minnesota | +3.0W27–14 | 41.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | California at San Diego State | -14.0L0–34 | 47.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | California at Boston College | +6.0W28–24 | 54.5 | W28–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | California vs Duke | +3.5L21–45 | 54.5 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | California vs North Carolina | -7.5W21–18 | 45.5 | W21–18 | U | N |
| Fri 10/24 | California at Virginia Tech | +6.5L34–42 | 50.5 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | California vs Virginia | +6.5L21–31 | 52.5 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | California at Louisville | +18.5W29–26 | 48.5 | W29–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | California at Stanford | -4.5L10–31 | 47.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | California vs SMU | +13.5W38–35 | 53.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | California at Hawai'i | +1.5L31–35 | 50.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Boston College 2025 Schedule
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Boston College vs Fordham | -35.0W66–10 | 53.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Boston College at Michigan State | +3.5L40–42 | 45.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Boston College at Stanford | -14.0L20–30 | 44.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Boston College vs California | -6.0L24–28 | 54.5 | L24–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Boston College at Pittsburgh | +6.5L7–48 | 54.5 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Boston College vs Clemson | +14.0L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Boston College vs UConn | +2.5L23–38 | 58.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Boston College at Louisville | +25.5L24–38 | 54.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boston College vs Notre Dame | +31.5L10–25 | 55.5 | L10–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Boston College vs SMU | +10.5L13–45 | 54.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Boston College vs Georgia Tech | +16.5L34–36 | 61.5 | L34–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Boston College at Syracuse | -2.5W34–12 | 54.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +10.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Boston College
59.3 — 19.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
California won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
42–49 (46%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Bryan Harsin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

