Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Williams Stadium
Lynchburg, VA
·
Turf
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19,200 cap
Gardner-Webb✈ 201 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Liberty
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -24.5
O/U 55.0
consensus
Gardner-Webb 2022 Schedule
Gardner-Webb's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Gardner-Webb at Coastal Carolina | +32.5L27–31 | 66.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Gardner-Webb at Marshall | +31.0L7–28 | 56.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Gardner-Webb at Liberty | +24.5L20–21 | 55.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
Liberty 2022 Schedule
Liberty's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Liberty at Southern Miss | -3.5W29–27 | 50.0 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Liberty vs UAB | +6.0W21–14 | 50.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Liberty at Wake Forest | +17.5L36–37 | 64.0 | L36–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Liberty vs Akron | -26.5W21–12 | 52.5 | W21–12 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Liberty at Old Dominion | -3.5W38–24 | 48.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Liberty at Massachusetts | -22.5W42–24 | 45.5 | W42–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Liberty vs Gardner-Webb | -24.5W21–20 | 55.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Liberty vs BYU | +7.0W41–14 | 58.0 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Liberty at Arkansas | +14.5W21–19 | 61.5 | W21–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Liberty at UConn | -13.5L33–36 | 45.0 | L33–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Liberty vs Virginia Tech | -10.5L22–23 | 46.0 | L22–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Liberty vs New Mexico State | -24.0L14–49 | 51.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Tue 12/20 | Liberty vs Toledo | +4.0L19–21 | 51.5 | L19–21 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +48.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓