Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas,
while Game Control favors Liberty.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -14.5
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2022 Schedule
Liberty's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Liberty at Southern Miss | -3.5W29–27 | 50.0 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Liberty vs UAB | +6.0W21–14 | 50.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Liberty at Wake Forest | +17.5L36–37 | 64.0 | L36–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Liberty vs Akron | -26.5W21–12 | 52.5 | W21–12 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Liberty at Old Dominion | -3.5W38–24 | 48.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Liberty at Massachusetts | -22.5W42–24 | 45.5 | W42–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Liberty vs Gardner-Webb | -24.5W21–20 | 55.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Liberty vs BYU | +7.0W41–14 | 58.0 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Liberty at Arkansas | +14.5W21–19 | 61.5 | W21–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Liberty at UConn | -13.5L33–36 | 45.0 | L33–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Liberty vs Virginia Tech | -10.5L22–23 | 46.0 | L22–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Liberty vs New Mexico State | -24.0L14–49 | 51.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Tue 12/20 | Liberty vs Toledo | +4.0L19–21 | 51.5 | L19–21 | U | Y |
Arkansas 2022 Schedule
Arkansas's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas vs Cincinnati | -6.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas vs South Carolina | -9.0W44–30 | 56.0 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas vs Missouri State | -26.0W38–27 | 60.0 | W38–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +1.5L21–23 | 51.0 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas vs Alabama | +17.0L26–49 | 61.0 | L26–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | +8.0L17–40 | 55.5 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas at BYU | +1.0W52–35 | 66.5 | W52–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas at Auburn | -4.0W41–27 | 60.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Arkansas vs Liberty | -14.5L19–21 | 61.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas vs LSU | +5.0L10–13 | 59.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas vs Ole Miss | +0.0W42–27 | 67.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Arkansas at Missouri | -3.0L27–29 | 55.5 | L27–29 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Arkansas vs Kansas | -1.5W55–53 | 70.5 | W55–53 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +0.32
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Liberty
23.0 — 70.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Hugh Freeze #1
26–11 (70%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kent Austin
Yr 2
#1
DC
Josh Aldridge
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kendal Briles
Yr 2
#1
DC
Barry Odom
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓