Matchup Prediction
Toledo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Toledo wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Toledo -7.0
O/U 56.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Toledo
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2022 Schedule
Toledo's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Toledo vs Long Island University | -47.5W37–0 | 57.0 | W37–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -28.0W55–10 | 49.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Toledo at Ohio State | +34.5L21–77 | 63.0 | L21–77 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Toledo at San Diego State | -2.5L14–17 | 44.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Toledo vs Central Michigan | -6.5W38–17 | 56.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Toledo at Northern Illinois | -6.5W52–32 | 59.0 | W52–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Toledo vs Kent State | -7.0W52–31 | 62.5 | W52–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Toledo at Buffalo | -7.0L27–34 | 56.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -4.0W27–24 | 54.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Toledo vs Ball State | -11.0W28–21 | 50.0 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Tue 11/15 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -14.5L35–42 | 47.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Toledo at Western Michigan | -8.5L14–20 | 50.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Toledo vs Ohio | -3.5W17–7 | 54.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/20 | Toledo vs Liberty | -4.0W21–19 | 51.5 | W21–19 | U | N |
Buffalo 2022 Schedule
Buffalo's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Buffalo at Maryland | +24.0L10–31 | 66.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Buffalo vs Holy Cross | -6.0L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Buffalo at Coastal Carolina | +12.0L26–38 | 60.0 | L26–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +6.5W50–31 | 57.5 | W50–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | -3.0W24–20 | 50.0 | W24–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | -2.0W38–7 | 55.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -17.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +7.0W34–27 | 56.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Buffalo at Ohio | -2.5L24–45 | 61.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +3.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Buffalo vs Akron | -14.0 | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -4.5L27–30 | 51.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Fri 12/2 | Buffalo vs Akron | -12.0W23–22 | 55.0 | W23–22 | U | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Buffalo vs Georgia Southern | +6.0W23–21 | 67.0 | W23–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Toledo
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Toledo
19.8 — 68.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Toledo. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
45–27 (63%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Mike Hallett
Yr 2
#1
DC
Vince Kehres
Yr 2
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓