Liberty at Wake Forest Week 3 College Football Matchup Liberty at Wake Forest Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 17 2022 · Week 3 · 🏟 BB&T Field Winston-Salem, NC · Turf · 31,500 cap
Liberty✈ 103 miSame TZ
Away
36 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
25
LIB +17.5
Wake Forest
37
P&R Line Wake Forest -12
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Wake Forest -17.5 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Wake Forest wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -17.5
O/U 64.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2022 Schedule
Liberty's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Liberty at Southern Miss-3.5W29–2750.0W29–27ON
Sat 9/10Liberty vs UAB+6.0W21–1450.0W21–14UY
Sat 9/17Liberty at Wake Forest+17.5L36–3764.0L36–37OY
Sat 9/24Liberty vs Akron-26.5W21–1252.5W21–12UN
Sat 10/1Liberty at Old Dominion-3.5W38–2448.0W38–24OY
Sat 10/8Liberty at Massachusetts-22.5W42–2445.5W42–24ON
Sat 10/15Liberty vs Gardner-Webb-24.5W21–2055.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/22Liberty vs BYU+7.0W41–1458.0W41–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Liberty at Arkansas+14.5W21–1961.5W21–19UY
Sat 11/12Liberty at UConn-13.5L33–3645.0L33–36ON
Sat 11/19Liberty vs Virginia Tech-10.5L22–2346.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/26Liberty vs New Mexico State-24.0L14–4951.0L14–49ON
Tue 12/20Liberty vs Toledo+4.0L19–2151.5L19–21UY
Wake Forest 2022 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1Wake Forest vs VMI-33.5W44–1066.5W44–10UY
Sat 9/10Wake Forest at Vanderbilt-13.5W45–2565.5W45–25OY
Sat 9/17Wake Forest vs Liberty-17.5W37–3664.0W37–36ON
Sat 9/24Wake Forest vs Clemson+7.5L45–5158.0L45–51OY
Sat 10/1Wake Forest at Florida State+6.0W31–2167.0W31–21UY
Sat 10/8Wake Forest vs Army-16.0W45–1065.5W45–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Wake Forest vs Boston College-20.0W43–1560.0W43–15UY
Sat 10/29Wake Forest at Louisville-3.0L21–4866.5L21–48ON
Sat 11/5Wake Forest at NC State-3.0L21–3054.0L21–30UN
Sat 11/12Wake Forest vs North Carolina-4.5L34–3679.0L34–36UN
Sat 11/19Wake Forest vs Syracuse-9.5W45–3558.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/26Wake Forest at Duke-3.0L31–3467.0L31–34UN
Fri 12/23Wake Forest vs Missouri-3.0W27–1759.0W27–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty
+0.357
Wake Forest
+0.341
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty
+0.506
Wake Forest
+0.633
Wake Forest Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty
0.205
Wake Forest
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty
+7.420
Wake Forest
+8.296
Wake Forest Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty
+0.846
Wake Forest
+0.833
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty
68.7
Wake Forest
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wake Forest Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Wake Forest
4.6
Offense Rating
Liberty
15.1
Wake Forest
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
18.0
Wake Forest
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wake Forest Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #19
0.50
Wake Forest #27
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #24
0.00
Wake Forest #60
1.00
Wake Forest +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
32.9
Wake Forest #1
87.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #43
22.1
Wake Forest #30
4.5
Wake Forest +54.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
73.0 — 11.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wake Forest won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Hugh Freeze #1
26–11 (70%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kent Austin Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
51–48 (52%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Warren Ruggiero Yr 2 #1
DC Brad Lambert Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself