Mississippi State at Ole Miss - 2018 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels(#6)

Thursday, November 22nd 2018 (7:30 PM EST)
Mississippi State -12.5 (61.0)
Mississippi State 35 - Ole Miss: 3 (SEC)

Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 29 - 13 (15 - 17 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS is playing their 4th straight game
MSST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -4 (SP+ MSST -13.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 28 - MISS: 24 (52)
MSST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
MSST Travel: 76 miles

Rebels (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 34 - 36 (36 - 36 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Mississippi State vs Stephen F. Austin	-47.5	53.0	W 63 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Mississippi State at Kansas State	-6.5	51.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/15	Mississippi State vs Louisiana	-34.0	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/22	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-9.5	56.0	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/29	Mississippi State vs Florida	-6.5	49.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/6	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+3.0	45.0	W 23 - 9	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/20	Mississippi State at LSU	+6.0	45.5	L 3 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/27	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-1.5	42.5	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/3	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-23.0	49.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	50.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/17	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-22.5	49.0	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Thu 11/22	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	-12.5	61.0	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Tue 1/1	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Ole Miss vs Texas Tech	-2.5	71.5	W 47 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Ole Miss vs Southern Illinois	-28.0	65.5	W 76 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/15	Ole Miss vs Alabama	+22.5	71.5	L 7 - 62	U	N
Sat 9/22	Ole Miss vs Kent State	-28.5	75.0	W 38 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/29	Ole Miss at LSU	+10.5	61.0	L 16 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/6	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-23.5	76.0	W 70 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/13	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-6.5	66.5	W 37 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/20	Ole Miss vs Auburn	+5.0	64.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/3	Ole Miss vs South Carolina	-2.0	70.0	L 44 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/10	Ole Miss at Texas A&M	+13.0	68.0	L 24 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/17	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	+3.0	72.5	L 29 - 36	U	N
Thu 11/22	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	+12.5	61.0	L 3 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.21	46%	28.5	54%	3.51	224	33%	174	4.35	-.03	37%	13.2	38%	32%	2.27	52.8	1	1.5
MISS	.31	51%	33.9	51%	3.14	164	48%	346	3.84	.21	48%	36.2	50%	43%	3.71	66.9	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	28.5	15.2	46.1%	4.35	1	18	398	224	174	5.7	56%	42%	54%	33%	14%	.21
MISS Defense	12	36.2	36.4	47.8%	3.71	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	50%	43%	17%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	13.2	16.8	36.9%	2.27	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	52%	38%	32%	20%	-.03
MISS Offense	12	33.9	36.3	50.7%	3.84	1.2	24	511	164	346	4.7	42%	55%	51%	48%	17%	.31

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	28:40	17.9	41%	38%	5.6	52.8	1	1.5	7.4	2.7	0	27.8
Ole Miss	12	26:20	24	35%	53%	7.3	66.9	1.2	1.3	7.2	1.9	2	25.9

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	56%	54%	39.5	223.5	5.7	26	.29	3.51	69%	8%	0.96
MISS Defense	12	53%	50%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.22	75%	11%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	45%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.08	2.5	78%	13%	0.8
MISS Offense	12	42%	51%	34.8	164.3	4.7	24	.2	3.14	73%	9%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	42%	33%	12.7	24.8	174.2	7	13.7	22	10	.12	1.8	30%	34%	.28	6%	1.8
MISS Defense	12	45%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.26	1.6	30%	33%	.3	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	52%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.02	1.5	36%	27%	.06	7%	1.6
MISS Offense	12	55%	48%	23.5	36.7	346.4	9.5	14.7	21	9	.42	1.6	29%	40%	.4	8%	1.7

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.2 #8
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.5 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Ole Miss: 7.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 23.2 Ole Miss: 9.8

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 7.4 NR
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ole Miss's 2018 Expected Record: -
Ole Miss's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.8 #33
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #6
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #90

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 13.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.8

Mississippi State's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 28
Ole Miss 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 27
Ole Miss 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 29
Ole Miss 25

Total Points: 54

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 33.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 36.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.4

Ole Miss's 2018 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Mississippi State	19	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -7.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Under
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	14	5	1 Overs
Mississippi State	11	7	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#) MSST at (#) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#33
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#23	#22
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#90
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#6	#1
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 46°

Rematch from Week 13
Mississippi State 12.5 (61.0)
Mississippi State won at Ole Miss this year (35-3)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MISS's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD