Florida at Mississippi State - 2018 Matchup Preview

Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 29th 2018 (6:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -6.5 (49.5)
Florida 13 - Mississippi State: 6 (SEC)

Gators (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (35 - 17 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ MSST -0)
Projected Score: FLA: 26 - MSST: 29 (55)
MSST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
FLA Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 29 - 13 (39 - 9 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Florida vs Charleston Southern	-43.0
Sat 9/8	Florida vs Kentucky	-13.5	52.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/15	Florida vs Colorado State	-21.5	60.0	W 48 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/22	Florida at Tennessee	-3.5	46.0	W 47 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/29	Florida at Mississippi State	+6.5	49.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/6	Florida vs LSU	+1.0	44.0	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/13	Florida at Vanderbilt	-9.5	51.0	W 37 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/27	Florida vs Georgia	+7.0	53.0	L 17 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/3	Florida vs Missouri	-6.0	59.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/10	Florida vs South Carolina	-7.0	55.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/17	Florida vs Idaho	-43.0	59.0	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/24	Florida at Florida State	-8.5	52.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/29	Florida vs Michigan	+4.0	51.0	W 41 - 15	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Mississippi State vs Stephen F. Austin	-47.5	53.0	W 63 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Mississippi State at Kansas State	-6.5	51.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/15	Mississippi State vs Louisiana	-34.0	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/22	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-9.5	56.0	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/29	Mississippi State vs Florida	-6.5	49.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/6	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+3.0	45.0	W 23 - 9	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/20	Mississippi State at LSU	+6.0	45.5	L 3 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/27	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-1.5	42.5	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/3	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-23.0	49.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	50.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/17	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-22.5	49.0	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Thu 11/22	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	-12.5	61.0	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Tue 1/1	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	.24	48%	35	50%	3.39	212	43%	214	4.46	.1	38%	20	39%	35%	2.94	60.6	1.1	2
MSST	.21	46%	28.5	54%	3.51	224	33%	174	4.35	-.03	37%	13.2	38%	32%	2.27	52.8	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	13	35	34.5	48.1%	4.46	1.1	22	426	212	214	5.3	54%	44%	50%	43%	13%	.24
MSST Defense	13	13.2	8.6	36.9%	2.27	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	52%	38%	32%	20%	-.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	13	20	17	38.2%	2.94	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	46%	39%	35%	19%	.1
MSST Offense	13	28.5	39	46.1%	4.35	1	18	398	224	174	5.7	56%	42%	54%	33%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	13	29:48	21.9	41%	58%	7.3	60.6	1.1	2	6.8	2.8	6	30.8
Mississippi State	13	28:40	17.9	41%	38%	5.6	52.8	1	1.5	7.4	2.7	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	13	54%	50%	40.2	212.3	5.3	23	.24	3.39	71%	8%	0.99
MSST Defense	13	45%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.08	2.5	78%	13%	0.8

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	13	51%	39%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.85	62%	12%	0.97
MSST Offense	13	56%	54%	39.5	223.5	5.7	26	.29	3.51	69%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	13	44%	43%	16.7	28	213.5	7.6	12.8	28	6	.29	1.6	27%	36%	.46	5%	1.8
MSST Defense	13	52%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.02	1.5	36%	27%	.06	7%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	13	46%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.12	1.6	34%	30%	.3	7%	1.9
MSST Offense	13	42%	33%	12.7	24.8	174.2	7	13.7	22	10	.12	1.8	30%	34%	.28	6%	1.8

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: NR
Florida's Offense Rating: NR
Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Florida's 2018 Expected Record: -
Florida's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.0 #9
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #15
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: Mississippi State: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 23.0 Mississippi State: 23.2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 14.1 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.2 #8
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.5 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida Scoring
Offense: 35 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.5
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Florida's 2018 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 29
Florida 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 31
Florida 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 26
Florida 23

Total Points: 49

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 13.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.6

Mississippi State's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Florida	23	Mississippi State	21	Florida -9.5	Mississippi State	50.5	Under
2024	09/21	Mississippi State	28	Florida	45	Florida -6.5	Florida	58.0	Over
2018	09/29	Mississippi State	6	Florida	13	Mississippi State -6.5	Florida	49.5	Under
2010	10/16	Florida	7	Mississippi State	10
2009	10/24	Mississippi State	19	Florida	29
2005	10/08	Florida	35	Mississippi State	9
2004	10/23	Mississippi State	38	Florida	31
2001	09/29	Florida	52	Mississippi State	0
2000	09/29	Mississippi State	47	Florida	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	1	1 Overs
Florida	6	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 4	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 5	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0

(#) FLA at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#9	#8
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#13	#23
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Florida Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#15	#1
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	FLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#17
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 78°

Rematch from Week 5
Mississippi State -6.5 (49.5)
Florida won at Mississippi State this year (13-6)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Mississippi State last year (45-28)

FLA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD