Auburn at Mississippi State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 8th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -1.5 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Auburn 38 - Mississippi State: 14 (SEC)

Tigers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST coming off BYE
AUB is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ AUB -10)
Projected Score: AUB: 28 - MSST: 28 (56)
MSST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
AUB Travel: 200 miles

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Auburn vs Clemson	+7.5	62.0	L 13 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Auburn vs Arkansas State	-13.0	51.0	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Auburn vs Texas A&M	-4.0	55.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/24	Auburn vs LSU	+4.0	46.5	W 18 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Auburn vs UL Monroe	-34.0	57.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Auburn at Mississippi State	+1.5	55.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Auburn vs Arkansas	-17.0	53.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Auburn at Ole Miss	-2.0	65.5	W 40 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-26.0	47.0	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/12	Auburn at Georgia	-8.0	51.0	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/19	Auburn vs Alabama A&M	-52.0
Sat 11/26	Auburn at Alabama	+20.0	47.0	L 12 - 30	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Auburn vs Oklahoma	+5.5	67.0	L 19 - 35	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs South Alabama	-34.0	52.0	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State vs South Carolina	-9.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+13.0	47.0	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State at Massachusetts	-25.0	49.5	W 47 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/14	Mississippi State at BYU	+4.0	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-1.5	54.5	L 38 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/29	Mississippi State vs Samford	-21.5
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+13.0	61.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State at Alabama	+28.5	52.5	L 3 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-1.0	57.5	L 42 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/26	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+8.0	67.5	W 55 - 20	O	Y
Mon 12/26	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	.17	46%	26.8	48%	3.04	196	40%	174	3.77	.14	47%	20.7	47%	44%	3.01	46.4	1.3	1.5
MSST	.24	48%	30.4	47%	3.08	144	47%	316	4.11	.12	44%	30.2	44%	42%	2.92	38.9	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	13	26.8	27.2	46.1%	3.77	1.3	20	370	196	174	4.4	62%	36%	48%	40%	3%	.17
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.3%	2.92	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	44%	42%	3%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	13	20.7	26.6	46.6%	3.01	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	44%	2%	.14
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	47.8%	4.11	1.4	23	460	144	316	4.4	41%	58%	47%	47%	1%	.24

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	13	28:21	19.8	41%	60%	4.8	46.4	1.3	1.5	0	0	1	29.3
Mississippi State	13	26:16	23.2	43%	50%	4.1	38.9	1.4	1.1	0	0	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	13	62%	48%	45.2	196.4	4.4	28	.12	3.04	81%	0%	0.79
MSST Defense	13	51%	44%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.72	70%	0%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	13	51%	47%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.24	70%	0%	0.94
MSST Offense	13	41%	47%	32.8	144.1	4.4	21	.13	3.08	83%	0%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	13	36%	40%	13.8	23.5	173.6	7.4	12.6	11	12	.28	1.7	29%	37%	.4	3%	1.8
MSST Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.18	1.5	33%	32%	.25	3%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.3	30%	36%	.22	2%	1.5
MSST Offense	13	58%	47%	25.5	38.5	316.4	8.2	12.4	33	5	.34	1.5	31%	36%	.37	1%	1.9

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: NR
Auburn's Offense Rating: NR
Auburn's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Auburn's 2016 Expected Record: -
Auburn's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #21
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #49
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: Mississippi State: 5.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 15.3 Mississippi State: 5.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 5.2 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #56
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #60

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 28
Mississippi State 28

Projected Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Auburn	27	Mississippi State	13	Auburn -6.5	Auburn	40.0	Push
2022	11/05	Mississippi State	39	Auburn	33	Mississippi State -12.5	Auburn	50.5	Over
2021	11/13	Auburn	34	Mississippi State	43	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2020	12/12	Mississippi State	10	Auburn	24	Auburn -5.5	Auburn	50.5	Under
2019	09/28	Auburn	56	Mississippi State	23	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	47.0	Over
2018	10/06	Mississippi State	23	Auburn	9	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	45.0	Under
2017	09/30	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	10	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Auburn	55.0	Under
2015	09/26	Auburn	9	Mississippi State	17	Auburn -3.5	Mississippi State	58.5	Under
2014	10/11	Mississippi State	38	Auburn	23	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	0
2013	09/14	Auburn	24	Mississippi State	20	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	0
2012	09/08	Mississippi State	28	Auburn	10
2011	09/10	Auburn	41	Mississippi State	34
2010	09/09	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	17
2009	09/12	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	24
2008	09/13	Mississippi State	2	Auburn	3
2007	09/15	Auburn	14	Mississippi State	19
2006	09/09	Mississippi State	0	Auburn	34
2005	09/10	Auburn	28	Mississippi State	0
2004	09/11	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	43
2003	10/18	Auburn	45	Mississippi State	13
2002	09/19	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	42
2001	10/06	Auburn	16	Mississippi State	14
2000	10/06	Mississippi State	17	Auburn	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	8	5	4 Overs
Auburn	16	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 5	1 - 2	5 - 3

(#) AUB at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#21	#56
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#7	#28
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Auburn Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#49	#60
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#37	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

AUB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Mississippi State -1.5 (55.0)
Auburn won at Mississippi State this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

AUB's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD