Sat, Aug 30 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Montana State✈ 598 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Oregon wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oregon -28.0
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Montana State 2025 Schedule
Montana State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Montana State at Oregon | +28.0L13–59 | 56.5 | L13–59 | O | N |
Oregon 2025 Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oregon vs Montana State | -28.0W59–13 | 56.5 | W59–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Oregon vs Oklahoma State | -28.5W69–3 | 55.5 | W69–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Oregon at Northwestern | -25.5W34–14 | 50.5 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -33.5W41–7 | 58.5 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Oregon at Penn State | +4.5W30–24 | 52.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Oregon vs Indiana | -7.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oregon at Rutgers | -17.5W56–10 | 62.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Oregon vs Wisconsin | -31.5W21–7 | 44.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Oregon at Iowa | -4.5W18–16 | 41.5 | W18–16 | U | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Oregon vs Minnesota | -26.5W42–13 | 45.5 | W42–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Oregon vs USC | -10.5W42–27 | 59.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Oregon at Washington | -6.5W26–14 | 51.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Oregon vs James Madison | -22.5W51–34 | 47.5 | W51–34 | O | N |
| Thu 1/1 | Oregon vs Texas Tech | +1.5W23–0 | 50.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/9 | Oregon vs Indiana | +3.0L22–56 | 50.5 | L22–56 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Montana State Edge
Montana State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +51.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓