Tue, Dec 23 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Toledo✈ 1,074 miSame TZ
Louisville✈ 881 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisville,
while Game Control favors Toledo.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Toledo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -12.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2025 Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Toledo at Kentucky | +10.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Toledo vs Western Kentucky | -8.5W45–21 | 57.5 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Toledo vs Morgan State | -33.5W60–0 | 54.5 | W60–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Toledo at Western Michigan | -13.5L13–14 | 48.5 | L13–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Toledo vs Akron | -21.5W45–3 | 50.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Toledo at Bowling Green | -10.5L23–28 | 45.5 | L23–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Toledo vs Kent State | -25.5W45–10 | 48.5 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Toledo at Washington State | -1.5L7–28 | 44.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Toledo vs Northern Illinois | -14.5W42–3 | 42.5 | W42–3 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/12 | Toledo at Miami (OH) | -6.5W24–3 | 44.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Toledo vs Ball State | -29.5W38–9 | 45.5 | W38–9 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Toledo at Central Michigan | -11.5W21–3 | 46.5 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/23 | Toledo vs Louisville | +12.5L22–27 | 44.5 | L22–27 | O | Y |
Louisville 2025 Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -37.5W51–17 | 57.5 | W51–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -15.0W28–14 | 57.0 | W28–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Louisville vs Bowling Green | -26.5W40–17 | 50.5 | W40–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -3.0W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Louisville vs Virginia | -6.5L27–30 | 59.5 | L27–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | Louisville at Miami | +10.5W24–21 | 49.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Louisville vs Boston College | -25.5W38–24 | 54.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Louisville at Virginia Tech | -10.5W28–16 | 52.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisville vs California | -18.5L26–29 | 48.5 | L26–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Louisville vs Clemson | -1.5L19–20 | 50.5 | L19–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Louisville at SMU | +4.0L6–38 | 49.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -1.0W41–0 | 45.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/23 | Louisville vs Toledo | -12.5W27–22 | 44.5 | W27–22 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +14.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
86.6 — 9.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
72–40 (64%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Mike Hallett
Yr 3
#1
DC
Vince Kehres
Yr 3
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
18–8 (69%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 3
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓