Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
·
Turf
·
65,326 cap
South Florida✈ 197 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors South Florida,
while Game Control favors Miami.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
South Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Miami wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami -17.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
South Florida 2025 Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | South Florida vs Boise State | +8.5W34–7 | 63.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | South Florida at Florida | +18.5W18–16 | 58.0 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Florida at Miami | +17.5L12–49 | 56.5 | L12–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | South Florida vs South Carolina State | -36.0W63–14 | 56.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/3 | South Florida vs Charlotte | -28.5W54–26 | 54.5 | W54–26 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | South Florida at North Texas | +2.5W63–36 | 68.5 | W63–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | South Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -20.5W48–13 | 72.5 | W48–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | South Florida at Memphis | -3.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | South Florida vs UTSA | -14.0W55–23 | 66.5 | W55–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | South Florida at Navy | -8.5L38–41 | 62.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | South Florida at UAB | -21.5W48–18 | 68.5 | W48–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Florida vs Rice | -28.5W52–3 | 57.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/17 | South Florida vs Old Dominion | -4.0L10–24 | 52.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
Miami 2025 Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8/31 | Miami vs Notre Dame | +2.5W27–24 | 53.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Miami vs Bethune-Cookman | -54.5W45–3 | 0.0 | W45–3 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Miami vs South Florida | -17.5W49–12 | 56.5 | W49–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Miami vs Florida | -8.5W26–7 | 51.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Miami at Florida State | -3.5W28–22 | 54.5 | W28–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | Miami vs Louisville | -10.5L21–24 | 49.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Miami vs Stanford | -28.5W42–7 | 45.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Miami at SMU | -8.5L20–26 | 50.5 | L20–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Miami vs Syracuse | -28.5W38–10 | 47.5 | W38–10 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Miami vs NC State | -16.5W41–7 | 54.5 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Miami at Virginia Tech | -18.5W34–17 | 49.0 | W34–17 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Miami at Pittsburgh | -6.5W38–7 | 49.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Miami at Texas A&M | +3.0W10–3 | 48.5 | W10–3 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Miami vs Ohio State | +7.5W24–14 | 39.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/8 | Miami vs Ole Miss | -3.0W31–27 | 52.5 | W31–27 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/19 | Miami vs Indiana | +7.5L21–27 | 46.5 | L21–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami Edge
Miami +42.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami
94.8 — 3.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami won by 37
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
13–12 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joel Gordon
Yr 3
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 3
#1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
22–15 (60%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 3
#1
DC
Corey Hetherman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓