Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
South Carolina State✈ 394 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
South Florida wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
South Florida -36.0
O/U 56.5
Bovada
South Carolina State 2025 Schedule
South Carolina State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/6 | South Carolina State at South Carolina | +43.0L10–38 | 54.0 | L10–38 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | South Carolina State at South Florida | +36.0L14–63 | 56.5 | L14–63 | O | N |
South Florida 2025 Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | South Florida vs Boise State | +8.5W34–7 | 63.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | South Florida at Florida | +18.5W18–16 | 58.0 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Florida at Miami | +17.5L12–49 | 56.5 | L12–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | South Florida vs South Carolina State | -36.0W63–14 | 56.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/3 | South Florida vs Charlotte | -28.5W54–26 | 54.5 | W54–26 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | South Florida at North Texas | +2.5W63–36 | 68.5 | W63–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | South Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -20.5W48–13 | 72.5 | W48–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | South Florida at Memphis | -3.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | South Florida vs UTSA | -14.0W55–23 | 66.5 | W55–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | South Florida at Navy | -8.5L38–41 | 62.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | South Florida at UAB | -21.5W48–18 | 68.5 | W48–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Florida vs Rice | -28.5W52–3 | 57.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/17 | South Florida vs Old Dominion | -4.0L10–24 | 52.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Carolina State Edge
South Carolina State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +29.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓