South Florida at Florida Week 2 College Football Matchup South Florida at Florida Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville, FL · Turf · 88,548 cap
South Florida✈ 116 miSame TZ
18 16
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Florida
29
Florida
28
P&R Line South Florida -1
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Florida -18.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida -18.5
O/U 58.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Florida · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Florida 2nd straight Home Game
South Florida 2025 Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28South Florida vs Boise State+8.5W34–763.5W34–7UY
Sat 9/6South Florida at Florida+18.5W18–1658.0W18–16UY
Sat 9/13South Florida at Miami+17.5L12–4956.5L12–49ON
Sat 9/20South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.0W63–1456.5W63–14OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/3South Florida vs Charlotte-28.5W54–2654.5W54–26ON
Fri 10/10South Florida at North Texas+2.5W63–3668.5W63–36OY
Sat 10/18South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.5W48–1372.5W48–13UY
Sat 10/25South Florida at Memphis-3.5L31–3458.5L31–34ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/6South Florida vs UTSA-14.0W55–2366.5W55–23OY
Sat 11/15South Florida at Navy-8.5L38–4162.5L38–41ON
Sat 11/22South Florida at UAB-21.5W48–1868.5W48–18UY
Sat 11/29South Florida vs Rice-28.5W52–357.5W52–3UY
Wed 12/17South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.0L10–2452.5L10–24UN
Florida 2025 Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Florida vs Long Island University-46.5W55–056.5W55–0UY
Sat 9/6Florida vs South Florida-18.5L16–1858.0L16–18UN
Sat 9/13Florida at LSU+5.5L10–2047.5L10–20UN
Sat 9/20Florida at Miami+8.5L7–2651.5L7–26UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Florida vs Texas+4.5W29–2142.5W29–21OY
Sat 10/11Florida at Texas A&M+7.0L17–3447.5L17–34ON
Sat 10/18Florida vs Mississippi State-9.5W23–2150.5W23–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Florida vs Georgia+7.0L20–2450.5L20–24UY
Sat 11/8Florida at Kentucky-4.5L7–3844.5L7–38ON
Sat 11/15Florida at Ole Miss+10.5L24–3453.5L24–34OY
Sat 11/22Florida vs Tennessee+3.5L11–3157.5L11–31UN
Sat 11/29Florida vs Florida State+1.5W40–2148.5W40–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
South Florida PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Florida #12
+0.490
Florida #87
+0.212
South Florida Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #6
+0.781
Florida #110
+0.343
South Florida Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Florida #59
0.161
Florida #98
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Florida Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #17
+7.914
Florida #41
+7.148
South Florida Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Florida #21
+0.897
Florida #83
+0.794
South Florida Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Florida #54
70.5
Florida #106
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Florida Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Florida
1.9
Florida
10.6
Offense Rating
South Florida
18.7
Florida
19.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Florida
16.8
Florida
8.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Florida Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Florida #21
3.00
Florida #61
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #68
0.00
Florida #59
0.00
South Florida +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Florida #1
57.8
Florida #1
97.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #38
17.5
Florida #87
2.0
Florida +39.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida
67.6 — 18.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Florida won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
13–12 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Joel Gordon Yr 3 #1
DC Todd Orlando Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida
Billy Napier #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Rob Sale Yr 3 #1
DC Ron Roberts Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself