Tue, Oct 28 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
James Madison✈ 1,235 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Texas State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
James Madison -7.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2025 Schedule
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | James Madison vs Weber State | -26.5W45–10 | 54.5 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/5 | James Madison at Louisville | +15.0L14–28 | 57.0 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | James Madison at Liberty | -7.5W31–13 | 46.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | James Madison vs Georgia Southern | -14.5W35–10 | 54.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | James Madison at Georgia State | -19.5W14–7 | 52.5 | W14–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | James Madison vs Louisiana | -18.5W24–14 | 44.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | James Madison vs Old Dominion | -3.0W63–27 | 47.5 | W63–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/28 | James Madison at Texas State | -7.5W52–20 | 55.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | James Madison at Marshall | -13.5W35–23 | 53.5 | W35–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | James Madison vs App State | -21.0W58–10 | 53.5 | W58–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | James Madison vs Washington State | -15.0W24–20 | 44.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | James Madison at Coastal Carolina | -24.0W59–10 | 54.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | James Madison vs Troy | -24.5W31–14 | 47.5 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 12/20 | James Madison at Oregon | +22.5L34–51 | 47.5 | L34–51 | O | Y |
Texas State 2025 Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Texas State vs Eastern Michigan | -14.0W52–27 | 58.5 | W52–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Texas State at UTSA | +4.5W43–36 | 64.5 | W43–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Texas State at Arizona State | +18.5L15–34 | 61.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Texas State vs Nicholls | -32.5W35–3 | 57.0 | W35–3 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Texas State at Arkansas State | -14.0L30–31 | 63.5 | L30–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Texas State vs Troy | -7.5L41–48 | 53.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Texas State at Marshall | -3.0L37–40 | 65.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/28 | Texas State vs James Madison | +7.5L20–52 | 55.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Texas State at Louisiana | -3.5L39–42 | 62.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Texas State at Southern Miss | +3.0W41–14 | 65.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -20.5W31–14 | 59.5 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Texas State vs South Alabama | -9.5W49–26 | 62.5 | W49–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/2 | Texas State vs Rice | -19.5W41–10 | 55.5 | W41–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
1 — 4 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
James Madison
7.0 — 84.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
James Madison won by 32
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
8–4 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Dean Kennedy
Yr 2
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 2
#1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
15–10 (60%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Landon Keopple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dexter McCoil
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓