James Madison at Louisville Week 2 College Football Matchup James Madison at Louisville Matchup - Week 2
Fri, Sep 5 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium Louisville, KY · Turf · 55,000 cap
James Madison✈ 373 miSame TZ
14 28
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
24
Louisville
31
P&R Line Louisville -7.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisville -15.0 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Louisville wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -15.0
O/U 57.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Louisville 2nd straight Home Game
James Madison 2025 Schedule
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30James Madison vs Weber State-26.5W45–1054.5W45–10OY
Fri 9/5James Madison at Louisville+15.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20James Madison at Liberty-7.5W31–1346.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/27James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.5W35–1054.5W35–10UY
Sat 10/4James Madison at Georgia State-19.5W14–752.5W14–7UN
Sat 10/11James Madison vs Louisiana-18.5W24–1444.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/18James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.0W63–2747.5W63–27OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/28James Madison at Texas State-7.5W52–2055.5W52–20OY
Sat 11/8James Madison at Marshall-13.5W35–2353.5W35–23ON
Sat 11/15James Madison vs App State-21.0W58–1053.5W58–10OY
Sat 11/22James Madison vs Washington State-15.0W24–2044.5W24–20UN
Sat 11/29James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.0W59–1054.5W59–10OY
Fri 12/5James Madison vs Troy-24.5W31–1447.5W31–14UN
Sat 12/20James Madison at Oregon+22.5L34–5147.5L34–51OY
Louisville 2025 Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.5W51–1757.5W51–17ON
Fri 9/5Louisville vs James Madison-15.0W28–1457.0W28–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.5W40–1750.5W40–17ON
Sat 9/27Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.0W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 10/4Louisville vs Virginia-6.5L27–3059.5L27–30UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17Louisville at Miami+10.5W24–2149.5W24–21UY
Sat 10/25Louisville vs Boston College-25.5W38–2454.5W38–24ON
Sat 11/1Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.5W28–1652.5W28–16UY
Sat 11/8Louisville vs California-18.5L26–2948.5L26–29ON
Fri 11/14Louisville vs Clemson-1.5L19–2050.5L19–20UN
Sat 11/22Louisville at SMU+4.0L6–3849.5L6–38UN
Sat 11/29Louisville vs Kentucky-1.0W41–045.5W41–0UY
Tue 12/23Louisville vs Toledo-12.5W27–2244.5W27–22ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #41
+0.261
Louisville #84
+0.183
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #51
+0.345
Louisville #119
+0.234
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #7
0.199
Louisville #33
0.173
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #43
+7.355
Louisville #77
+7.029
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #38
+0.817
Louisville #44
+0.761
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #8
67.4
Louisville #11
67.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
Louisville
10.8
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Louisville
21.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Louisville
11.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #9
0.00
Louisville #17
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #53
0.00
Louisville #18
0.00
James Madison +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
92.5
Louisville #1
98.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
3.3
Louisville #32
0.2
Louisville +6.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
36.3 — 31.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisville won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisville. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 2 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
18–8 (69%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 3 #1
DC Ron English Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself