Sat, Sep 20 2025
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Week 4
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🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
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24,000 cap
Murray State✈ 241 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Jacksonville State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -35.5
O/U 60.5
Bovada
Murray State 2025 Schedule
Murray State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Murray State at Georgia State | +31.5L21–37 | 63.5 | L21–37 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Murray State at Jacksonville State | +35.5L10–45 | 60.5 | L10–45 | U | Y |
Jacksonville State 2025 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Jacksonville State at UCF | +16.5L10–17 | 53.5 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Jacksonville State vs Liberty | +6.0W34–24 | 50.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern | +3.0L34–41 | 59.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Jacksonville State vs Murray State | -35.5W45–10 | 60.5 | W45–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Jacksonville State at Southern Miss | +4.5L25–42 | 55.5 | L25–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -7.0W29–27 | 53.5 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Wed 10/15 | Jacksonville State vs Delaware | +3.0W38–25 | 55.5 | W38–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/29 | Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee | -4.5W24–21 | 54.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Jacksonville State at UTEP | -1.5W30–27 | 46.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State | +3.5W35–26 | 56.5 | W35–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Jacksonville State at Florida International | +2.5L21–27 | 55.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | +1.5W37–34 | 56.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State | +3.0L15–19 | 62.5 | L15–19 | U | N |
| Tue 12/16 | Jacksonville State vs Troy | -3.0W17–13 | 47.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Murray State Edge
Murray State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +46.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓