Tue, Dec 16 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Cramton Bowl
Montgomery, AL
·
Turf
·
21,000 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 104 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -3.0
O/U 47.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Jacksonville State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2025 Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Troy vs Nicholls | -16.5W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Troy at Clemson | +31.0L16–27 | 51.5 | L16–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Troy vs Memphis | +4.5L7–28 | 51.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Troy at Buffalo | +5.5W21–17 | 43.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Troy vs South Alabama | +2.5W31–24 | 46.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Troy at Texas State | +7.5W48–41 | 53.5 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Troy at UL Monroe | -4.5W37–14 | 45.5 | W37–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Troy vs Louisiana | -7.0W35–23 | 47.5 | W35–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -7.5L10–23 | 52.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Troy at Old Dominion | +9.5L0–33 | 53.5 | L0–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Troy vs Georgia State | -9.5W31–19 | 51.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Troy at Southern Miss | +6.5W28–18 | 50.5 | W28–18 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | Troy at James Madison | +24.5L14–31 | 47.5 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/16 | Troy vs Jacksonville State | +3.0L13–17 | 47.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
Jacksonville State 2025 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Jacksonville State at UCF | +16.5L10–17 | 53.5 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Jacksonville State vs Liberty | +6.0W34–24 | 50.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern | +3.0L34–41 | 59.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Jacksonville State vs Murray State | -35.5W45–10 | 60.5 | W45–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Jacksonville State at Southern Miss | +4.5L25–42 | 55.5 | L25–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -7.0W29–27 | 53.5 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Wed 10/15 | Jacksonville State vs Delaware | +3.0W38–25 | 55.5 | W38–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/29 | Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee | -4.5W24–21 | 54.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Jacksonville State at UTEP | -1.5W30–27 | 46.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State | +3.5W35–26 | 56.5 | W35–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Jacksonville State at Florida International | +2.5L21–27 | 55.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | +1.5W37–34 | 56.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State | +3.0L15–19 | 62.5 | L15–19 | U | N |
| Tue 12/16 | Jacksonville State vs Troy | -3.0W17–13 | 47.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Reagan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dontae Wright
Yr 1
#1
Jacksonville State
Charles Kelly #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Clint Trickett
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓