Sat, Oct 11 2025
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Northwestern✈ 516 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -20.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2025 Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Northwestern at Tulane | +6.5L3–23 | 47.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Northwestern vs Western Illinois | -30.5W42–7 | 48.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Northwestern vs Oregon | +25.5L14–34 | 50.5 | L14–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Northwestern vs UCLA | -6.0W17–14 | 45.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Northwestern vs UL Monroe | -12.5W42–7 | 43.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Northwestern at Penn State | +20.5W22–21 | 46.5 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Northwestern vs Purdue | -3.0W19–0 | 47.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +7.5L21–28 | 44.5 | L21–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/7 | Northwestern at USC | +14.5L17–38 | 54.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Northwestern vs Michigan | +10.0L22–24 | 41.5 | L22–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | -4.0W38–35 | 41.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Northwestern at Illinois | +7.0L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Northwestern vs Central Michigan | -13.5W34–7 | 43.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
Penn State 2025 Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Penn State vs Nevada | -45.5W46–11 | 58.5 | W46–11 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Penn State vs Florida International | -42.0W34–0 | 53.5 | W34–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Penn State vs Villanova | -46.5W52–6 | 57.5 | W52–6 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Penn State vs Oregon | -4.5L24–30 | 52.5 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Penn State at UCLA | -24.5L37–42 | 48.5 | L37–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -20.5L21–22 | 46.5 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Penn State at Iowa | +3.5L24–25 | 41.5 | L24–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Penn State at Ohio State | +17.5L14–38 | 45.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Penn State vs Indiana | +13.5L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Penn State at Michigan State | -7.0W28–10 | 48.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Penn State vs Nebraska | -7.5W37–10 | 45.5 | W37–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Penn State at Rutgers | -14.5W40–36 | 55.5 | W40–36 | O | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Penn State vs Clemson | +2.5W22–10 | 47.5 | W22–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +10.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
David Braun #1
12–13 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Zach Lujan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 2
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
99–41 (71%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓