Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Evanston, IL
·
Turf
·
15,000 cap
Purdue✈ 119 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Northwestern
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northwestern entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Northwestern wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northwestern -3
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northwestern
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Purdue 2025 Schedule
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Purdue vs Ball State | -16.5W31–0 | 50.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Purdue vs Southern Illinois | -19.5W34–17 | 52.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Purdue vs USC | +20.5L17–33 | 59.5 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Purdue at Notre Dame | +24.5L30–56 | 51.5 | L30–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Purdue vs Illinois | +7.5L27–43 | 55.5 | L27–43 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Purdue at Minnesota | +7.5L20–27 | 49.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Purdue at Northwestern | +3.0L0–19 | 47.5 | L0–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Purdue vs Rutgers | -2.5L24–27 | 60.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Purdue at Michigan | +21.0L16–21 | 48.5 | L16–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Purdue vs Ohio State | +29.5L10–34 | 49.5 | L10–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Purdue at Washington | +14.5L13–49 | 51.5 | L13–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/28 | Purdue vs Indiana | +28.5L3–56 | 53.5 | L3–56 | O | N |
Northwestern 2025 Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Northwestern at Tulane | +6.5L3–23 | 47.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Northwestern vs Western Illinois | -30.5W42–7 | 48.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Northwestern vs Oregon | +25.5L14–34 | 50.5 | L14–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Northwestern vs UCLA | -6.0W17–14 | 45.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Northwestern vs UL Monroe | -12.5W42–7 | 43.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Northwestern at Penn State | +20.5W22–21 | 46.5 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Northwestern vs Purdue | -3.0W19–0 | 47.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +7.5L21–28 | 44.5 | L21–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/7 | Northwestern at USC | +14.5L17–38 | 54.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Northwestern vs Michigan | +10.0L22–24 | 41.5 | L22–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | -4.0W38–35 | 41.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Northwestern at Illinois | +7.0L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Northwestern vs Central Michigan | -13.5W34–7 | 43.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northwestern
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +1.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +8.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northwestern
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Northwestern
88.8 — 5.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Northwestern won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northwestern. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Purdue
Barry Odom #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Henson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Michael Scherer
Yr 1
#1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
12–13 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Zach Lujan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓