Sat, Nov 22 2025
·
Week 13
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Wrigley Field
Chicago, IL
·
Turf
Minnesota✈ 898 miSame TZ
Northwestern✈ 557 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Northwestern
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northwestern entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Northwestern wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northwestern -4.0
O/U 41.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northwestern
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Minnesota 2025 Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Minnesota vs Buffalo | -16.5W23–10 | 45.5 | W23–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Minnesota vs Northwestern State | -43.0W66–0 | 50.5 | W66–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Minnesota at California | -3.0L14–27 | 41.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Minnesota vs Rutgers | -3.5W31–28 | 51.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Minnesota at Ohio State | +23.5L3–42 | 42.5 | L3–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Minnesota vs Purdue | -7.5W27–20 | 49.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/17 | Minnesota vs Nebraska | +7.0W24–6 | 47.5 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Minnesota at Iowa | +7.5L3–41 | 39.5 | L3–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Minnesota vs Michigan State | -4.5W23–20 | 44.5 | W23–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/14 | Minnesota at Oregon | +26.5L13–42 | 45.5 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Minnesota vs Northwestern | +4.0L35–38 | 41.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Minnesota vs Wisconsin | +2.5W17–7 | 38.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Minnesota vs New Mexico | -1.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
Northwestern 2025 Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Northwestern at Tulane | +6.5L3–23 | 47.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Northwestern vs Western Illinois | -30.5W42–7 | 48.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Northwestern vs Oregon | +25.5L14–34 | 50.5 | L14–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Northwestern vs UCLA | -6.0W17–14 | 45.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Northwestern vs UL Monroe | -12.5W42–7 | 43.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Northwestern at Penn State | +20.5W22–21 | 46.5 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Northwestern vs Purdue | -3.0W19–0 | 47.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +7.5L21–28 | 44.5 | L21–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/7 | Northwestern at USC | +14.5L17–38 | 54.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Northwestern vs Michigan | +10.0L22–24 | 41.5 | L22–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | -4.0W38–35 | 41.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Northwestern at Illinois | +7.0L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Northwestern vs Central Michigan | -13.5W34–7 | 43.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northwestern
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +1.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +5.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northwestern
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Northwestern
48.6 — 29.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Northwestern won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northwestern. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
57–39 (59%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Yr 3
#1
DC
Danny Collins
Yr 1
#1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
12–13 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Zach Lujan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓