Sat, Oct 25 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Husky Stadium
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
70,500 cap
Illinois✈ 1,759 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington -3.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Illinois 2025 Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Illinois vs Western Illinois | -48.5W52–3 | 62.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Illinois at Duke | -2.5W45–19 | 49.0 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Illinois vs Western Michigan | -27.5W38–0 | 50.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Illinois at Indiana | +7.0L10–63 | 51.5 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Illinois vs USC | +6.5W34–32 | 62.5 | W34–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Illinois at Purdue | -7.5W43–27 | 55.5 | W43–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Illinois vs Ohio State | +15.5L16–34 | 51.5 | L16–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Illinois at Washington | +3.5L25–42 | 54.5 | L25–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Illinois vs Rutgers | -13.5W35–13 | 63.5 | W35–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Illinois vs Maryland | -15.5W24–6 | 51.5 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Illinois at Wisconsin | -8.5L10–27 | 42.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -7.0W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Illinois vs Tennessee | +3.0W30–28 | 62.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
Washington 2025 Schedule
Washington's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Washington vs Colorado State | -20.5W38–21 | 52.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Washington vs UC Davis | -28.0W70–10 | 54.0 | W70–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Washington at Washington State | -21.0W59–24 | 51.5 | W59–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Washington vs Ohio State | +9.5L6–24 | 52.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Washington at Maryland | -5.5W24–20 | 52.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Washington vs Rutgers | -9.5W38–19 | 62.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Washington at Michigan | +4.5L7–24 | 50.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Washington vs Illinois | -3.5W42–25 | 54.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Washington at Wisconsin | -10.5L10–13 | 44.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Washington vs Purdue | -14.5W49–13 | 51.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Washington at UCLA | -10.5W48–14 | 51.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Washington vs Oregon | +6.5L14–26 | 51.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/13 | Washington vs Boise State | -9.5W38–10 | 55.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Washington
77.1 — 10.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Washington won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
27–22 (55%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 3
#1
DC
Aaron Henry
Yr 3
#1
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jimmie Dougherty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓