Sat, Aug 30 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Husky Stadium
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
70,500 cap
Colorado State✈ 981 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Washington -20.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado State 2025 Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Colorado State at Washington | +20.5L21–38 | 52.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -35.0W21–17 | 52.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado State vs UTSA | +4.5L16–17 | 58.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado State vs Washington State | -4.5L3–20 | 48.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/3 | Colorado State at San Diego State | +4.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Colorado State vs Fresno State | +5.5W49–21 | 47.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Colorado State vs Hawai'i | -2.5L19–31 | 53.5 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +5.5L0–28 | 46.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado State vs UNLV | +5.5L10–42 | 60.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Colorado State at New Mexico | +15.5L17–20 | 53.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado State at Boise State | +17.5L21–49 | 46.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +2.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Washington 2025 Schedule
Washington's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Washington vs Colorado State | -20.5W38–21 | 52.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Washington vs UC Davis | -28.0W70–10 | 54.0 | W70–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Washington at Washington State | -21.0W59–24 | 51.5 | W59–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Washington vs Ohio State | +9.5L6–24 | 52.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Washington at Maryland | -5.5W24–20 | 52.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Washington vs Rutgers | -9.5W38–19 | 62.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Washington at Michigan | +4.5L7–24 | 50.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Washington vs Illinois | -3.5W42–25 | 54.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Washington at Wisconsin | -10.5L10–13 | 44.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Washington vs Purdue | -14.5W49–13 | 51.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Washington at UCLA | -10.5W48–14 | 51.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Washington vs Oregon | +6.5L14–26 | 51.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/13 | Washington vs Boise State | -9.5W38–10 | 55.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Washington
72.3 — 9.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Washington won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
16–20 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 1
#1
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jimmie Dougherty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓