Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
·
Turf
·
60,670 cap
Western Michigan✈ 203 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Illinois
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Illinois wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Illinois wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Illinois -27.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2025 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +18.5L6–23 | 49.5 | L6–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Michigan vs North Texas | +12.0L30–33 | 56.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Western Michigan at Illinois | +27.5L0–38 | 50.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +13.5W14–13 | 48.5 | W14–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Western Michigan vs Rhode Island | -7.5W47–14 | 45.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Western Michigan at Massachusetts | -12.5W21–3 | 46.5 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -9.5W42–0 | 43.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +2.5L17–26 | 40.5 | L17–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -6.0W24–21 | 43.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/11 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -1.5W17–13 | 46.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/18 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -7.0W35–19 | 39.5 | W35–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/25 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -10.0W31–21 | 49.0 | W31–21 | O | N |
| Sat 12/6 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | -2.5W23–13 | 44.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State | -3.0W41–6 | 47.0 | W41–6 | U | Y |
Illinois 2025 Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Illinois vs Western Illinois | -48.5W52–3 | 62.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Illinois at Duke | -2.5W45–19 | 49.0 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Illinois vs Western Michigan | -27.5W38–0 | 50.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Illinois at Indiana | +7.0L10–63 | 51.5 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Illinois vs USC | +6.5W34–32 | 62.5 | W34–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Illinois at Purdue | -7.5W43–27 | 55.5 | W43–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Illinois vs Ohio State | +15.5L16–34 | 51.5 | L16–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Illinois at Washington | +3.5L25–42 | 54.5 | L25–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Illinois vs Rutgers | -13.5W35–13 | 63.5 | W35–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Illinois vs Maryland | -15.5W24–6 | 51.5 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Illinois at Wisconsin | -8.5L10–27 | 42.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -7.0W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Illinois vs Tennessee | +3.0W30–28 | 62.5 | W30–28 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +55.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Illinois
87.9 — 6.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Illinois won by 38
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Illinois with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
10–14 (42%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chris O'Leary
Yr 1
#1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
27–22 (55%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 3
#1
DC
Aaron Henry
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓