Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Ross-Ade Stadium
West Lafayette, IN
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Turf
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57,236 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Purdue wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Purdue -35.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Indiana State 2024 Schedule
Indiana State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Indiana State at Purdue | +35.5L0–49 | 52.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
Purdue 2024 Schedule
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -35.5W49–0 | 52.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Purdue vs Notre Dame | +11.5L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Purdue at Oregon State | +1.5L21–38 | 51.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Purdue vs Nebraska | +10.0L10–28 | 47.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Purdue at Wisconsin | +12.0L6–52 | 44.5 | L6–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Purdue at Illinois | +22.5L49–50 | 47.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Purdue vs Oregon | +30.0L0–35 | 61.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Purdue vs Northwestern | -3.0L20–26 | 44.5 | L20–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Purdue at Ohio State | +37.5L0–45 | 55.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Purdue vs Penn State | +30.0L10–49 | 51.5 | L10–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Purdue at Michigan State | +14.0L17–24 | 49.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Purdue at Indiana | +28.5L0–66 | 56.5 | L0–66 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Indiana State Edge
Indiana State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +20.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓