Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -3.5
O/U 64.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ole Miss 2024 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ole Miss vs Furman | -45.5W76–0 | 58.5 | W76–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee | -42.5W52–3 | 60.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ole Miss at Wake Forest | -20.5W40–6 | 65.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern | -35.0W52–13 | 68.5 | W52–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ole Miss vs Kentucky | -15.0L17–20 | 51.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ole Miss at South Carolina | -10.0W27–3 | 53.0 | W27–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ole Miss at LSU | -3.5L26–29 | 64.5 | L26–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ole Miss vs Oklahoma | -19.0W26–14 | 50.0 | W26–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ole Miss at Arkansas | -8.0W63–31 | 54.0 | W63–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ole Miss vs Georgia | +1.5W28–10 | 54.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Ole Miss at Florida | -13.0L17–24 | 57.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State | -26.5W26–14 | 63.5 | W26–14 | U | N |
| Thu 1/2 | Ole Miss vs Duke | -17.5W52–20 | 50.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
LSU 2024 Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/1 | LSU vs USC | -4.0L20–27 | 66.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | LSU vs Nicholls | -50.5W44–21 | 62.0 | W44–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | LSU at South Carolina | -7.0W36–33 | 50.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | LSU vs UCLA | -21.5W34–17 | 56.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | LSU vs South Alabama | -21.0W42–10 | 64.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +3.5W29–26 | 64.5 | W29–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | LSU at Arkansas | -3.0W34–10 | 57.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | +2.0L23–38 | 54.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | LSU vs Alabama | +2.5L13–42 | 57.5 | L13–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | LSU at Florida | -3.0L16–27 | 57.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | LSU vs Vanderbilt | -10.0W24–17 | 53.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | LSU vs Oklahoma | -4.5W37–17 | 47.5 | W37–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | LSU vs Baylor | +3.0W44–31 | 62.5 | W44–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +1.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +28.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
12.3 — 64.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
LSU won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
34–15 (69%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 1
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
20–7 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓