Matchup Prediction
LSU
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
LSU entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
LSU wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
LSU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
LSU -4.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → LSU
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Oklahoma vs Temple | -42.5W51–3 | 59.5 | W51–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Oklahoma vs Houston | -27.5W16–12 | 48.5 | W16–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oklahoma vs Tulane | -13.5W34–19 | 48.5 | W34–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Oklahoma vs Tennessee | +6.0L15–25 | 57.0 | L15–25 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Oklahoma at Auburn | +2.0W27–21 | 43.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Oklahoma vs Texas | +16.5L3–34 | 48.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Oklahoma vs South Carolina | +1.0L9–35 | 40.5 | L9–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Oklahoma at Ole Miss | +19.0L14–26 | 50.0 | L14–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Oklahoma vs Maine | -37.5W59–14 | 48.5 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Oklahoma at Missouri | -3.5L23–30 | 41.5 | L23–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Oklahoma vs Alabama | +14.0W24–3 | 47.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Oklahoma at LSU | +4.5L17–37 | 47.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Oklahoma vs Navy | +1.0L20–21 | 44.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
LSU 2024 Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/1 | LSU vs USC | -4.0L20–27 | 66.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | LSU vs Nicholls | -50.5W44–21 | 62.0 | W44–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | LSU at South Carolina | -7.0W36–33 | 50.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | LSU vs UCLA | -21.5W34–17 | 56.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | LSU vs South Alabama | -21.0W42–10 | 64.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +3.5W29–26 | 64.5 | W29–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | LSU at Arkansas | -3.0W34–10 | 57.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | +2.0L23–38 | 54.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | LSU vs Alabama | +2.5L13–42 | 57.5 | L13–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | LSU at Florida | -3.0L16–27 | 57.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | LSU vs Vanderbilt | -10.0W24–17 | 53.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | LSU vs Oklahoma | -4.5W37–17 | 47.5 | W37–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | LSU vs Baylor | +3.0W44–31 | 62.5 | W44–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ LSU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ LSU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ LSU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
LSU Edge
LSU +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
LSU Edge
LSU +2.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
LSU
60.8 — 12.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
LSU won by 20
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on LSU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma
Brent Venables #1
16–10 (62%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Seth Littrell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
20–7 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓