Sun, Sep 3 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Idaho State✈ 742 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
San Diego State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -34.5
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Idaho State 2023 Schedule
Idaho State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Idaho State at San Diego State | +34.5L28–36 | 51.0 | L28–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Idaho State at Utah State | +24.0L28–78 | 61.0 | L28–78 | O | N |
San Diego State 2023 Schedule
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | San Diego State vs Ohio | -2.0W20–13 | 48.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | San Diego State vs Idaho State | -34.5W36–28 | 51.0 | W36–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | San Diego State vs UCLA | +13.0L10–35 | 49.0 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | San Diego State at Oregon State | +24.5L9–26 | 48.5 | L9–26 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | San Diego State vs Boise State | +6.5L31–34 | 46.0 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | San Diego State at Air Force | +10.5L10–49 | 43.5 | L10–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -6.0W41–34 | 51.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | San Diego State vs Nevada | -11.0L0–6 | 48.5 | L0–6 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | San Diego State vs Utah State | +2.0L24–32 | 56.5 | L24–32 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | San Diego State at Colorado State | +3.5L19–22 | 46.5 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | San Diego State at San José State | +16.5L13–24 | 48.5 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | San Diego State vs Fresno State | +5.5W33–18 | 47.0 | W33–18 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho State Edge
Idaho State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +47.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓