Texas State at Rice Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas State at Rice Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 26 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
Texas State✈ 214 miSame TZ Rice✈ 230 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
45 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas State
31
RICE +3.5
Rice
30
P&R Line Texas State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas State -3.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -3.5
O/U 58.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Rice 2nd straight Home Game
Texas State 2023 Schedule
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas State at Baylor+26.5W42–3158.5W42–31OY
Sat 9/9Texas State at UTSA+13.5L13–2066.5L13–20UY
Sat 9/16Texas State vs Jackson State-17.5W77–3461.5W77–34OY
Sat 9/23Texas State vs Nevada-17.0W35–2460.0W35–24UN
Sat 9/30Texas State at Southern Miss-6.5W50–3660.0W50–36OY
Sat 10/7Texas State at Louisiana+1.0L30–3467.5L30–34UN
Sat 10/14Texas State vs UL Monroe-18.5W21–2064.5W21–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Texas State vs Troy+6.5L13–3153.0L13–31UN
Sat 11/4Texas State vs Georgia Southern+2.0W45–2469.0W45–24UY
Sat 11/11Texas State at Coastal Carolina-2.5L23–3155.5L23–31UN
Sat 11/18Texas State at Arkansas State-3.5L31–7759.5L31–77ON
Sat 11/25Texas State vs South Alabama+6.5W52–4457.0W52–44OY
Tue 12/26Texas State vs Rice-3.5W45–2158.5W45–21OY
Rice 2023 Schedule
Rice's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Rice at Texas+35.5L10–3759.0L10–37UY
Sat 9/9Rice vs Houston+7.5W43–4151.0W43–41OY
Sat 9/16Rice vs Texas Southern-35.5W59–760.0W59–7OY
Sat 9/23Rice at South Florida-2.5L29–4256.5L29–42ON
Sat 9/30Rice vs East Carolina-3.5W24–1747.0W24–17UY
Sat 10/7Rice vs UConn-10.0L31–3847.5L31–38ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/19Rice at Tulsa+3.0W42–1056.5W42–10UY
Sat 10/28Rice vs Tulane+10.0L28–3055.0L28–30OY
Sat 11/4Rice vs SMU+12.0L31–3659.5L31–36OY
Sat 11/11Rice at UTSA+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/18Rice at Charlotte+0.5W28–746.5W28–7UY
Sat 11/25Rice vs Florida Atlantic-5.0W24–2146.5W24–21UN
Tue 12/26Rice vs Texas State+3.5L21–4558.5L21–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas State #23
+0.457
Rice #52
+0.394
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #36
+0.569
Rice #45
+0.606
Rice Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas State #17
0.188
Rice #126
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #19
+8.167
Rice #9
+8.507
Rice Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas State #20
+0.880
Rice #49
+0.841
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas State #80
70.9
Rice #94
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas State
1.5
Rice
-17.1
Offense Rating
Texas State
17.8
Rice
6.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas State
16.3
Rice
23.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas State #38
1.36
Rice #101
0.73
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #38
1.09
Rice #61
1.09
Texas State +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas State #1
51.6
Rice #1
45.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #33
32.2
Rice #82
39.6
Texas State +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rice
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas State
8.4 — 79.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
18–40 (31%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Marques Tuiasosopo Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Smith Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself