Sat, Sep 23 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Nevada✈ 1,405 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Texas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas State -17
O/U 60.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2023 Schedule
Nevada's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Nevada at USC | +37.5L14–66 | 63.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Nevada vs Idaho | +5.5L6–33 | 51.0 | L6–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Nevada vs Kansas | +28.5L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Nevada at Texas State | +17.0L24–35 | 60.0 | L24–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Nevada at Fresno State | +25.5L9–27 | 50.5 | L9–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L27–45 | 51.5 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Nevada at San Diego State | +11.0W6–0 | 48.5 | W6–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Nevada vs New Mexico | +1.0W34–24 | 50.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -3.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Nevada at Utah State | +14.5L24–41 | 54.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Nevada at Colorado State | +12.5L20–30 | 45.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Nevada vs Wyoming | +11.0L6–42 | 42.0 | L6–42 | O | N |
Texas State 2023 Schedule
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Texas State at Baylor | +26.5W42–31 | 58.5 | W42–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Texas State at UTSA | +13.5L13–20 | 66.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Texas State vs Jackson State | -17.5W77–34 | 61.5 | W77–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Texas State vs Nevada | -17.0W35–24 | 60.0 | W35–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Texas State at Southern Miss | -6.5W50–36 | 60.0 | W50–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Texas State at Louisiana | +1.0L30–34 | 67.5 | L30–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -18.5W21–20 | 64.5 | W21–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Texas State vs Troy | +6.5L13–31 | 53.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | +2.0W45–24 | 69.0 | W45–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | -2.5L23–31 | 55.5 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Texas State at Arkansas State | -3.5L31–77 | 59.5 | L31–77 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +6.5W52–44 | 57.0 | W52–44 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Texas State vs Rice | -3.5W45–21 | 58.5 | W45–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +54.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Nevada
26.0 — 58.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas State won by 11
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
2–13 (13%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Derek Sage
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kwame Agyeman
Yr 2
#1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mack Leftwich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jonathan Patke
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓