Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
Alcorn State✈ 112 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Southern Miss wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Southern Mississippi -24
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Alcorn State 2023 Schedule
Alcorn State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Alcorn State at Southern Miss | +24.0L14–40 | 47.5 | L14–40 | O | N |
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Southern Miss vs Alcorn State | -24.0W40–14 | 47.5 | W40–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Southern Miss at Florida State | +31.0L13–66 | 54.0 | L13–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Southern Miss vs Tulane | +8.0L3–21 | 47.5 | L3–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -7.0L37–44 | 46.5 | L37–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | +6.5L36–50 | 60.0 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Southern Miss vs Old Dominion | -3.0L13–17 | 56.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | +18.5L3–55 | 51.0 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Southern Miss at App State | +16.0L38–48 | 55.5 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -3.0W24–7 | 56.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | +8.5W34–31 | 51.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Southern Miss at Mississippi State | +18.5L20–41 | 47.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Southern Miss vs Troy | +16.5L17–35 | 48.5 | L17–35 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alcorn State Edge
Alcorn State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +37.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓