Tulane at Southern Miss Week 3 College Football Matchup Tulane at Southern Miss Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 16 2023 · Week 3 · 🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium Hattiesburg, MS · Turf · 36,000 cap
Tulane✈ 106 miSame TZ
Away
21 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Tulane
32
TULN -8
Southern Miss
19
P&R Line Tulane -13
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Tulane -8 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Tulane has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Tulane entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Tulane wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Tulane wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tulane -8
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulane · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tulane 2023 Schedule
Tulane's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Tulane vs South Alabama-6.0W37–1751.0W37–17OY
Sat 9/9Tulane vs Ole Miss+8.0L20–3764.0L20–37UN
Sat 9/16Tulane at Southern Miss-8.0W21–347.5W21–3UY
Sat 9/23Tulane vs Nicholls-38.0W36–755.5W36–7UN
Sat 9/30Tulane vs UAB-22.5W35–2359.5W35–23UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/13Tulane at Memphis-4.5W31–2154.5W31–21UY
Sat 10/21Tulane vs North Texas-20.0W35–2863.5W35–28UN
Sat 10/28Tulane at Rice-10.0W30–2855.0W30–28ON
Sat 11/4Tulane at East Carolina-17.0W13–1046.0W13–10UN
Sat 11/11Tulane vs Tulsa-24.5W24–2252.5W24–22UN
Sat 11/18Tulane at Florida Atlantic-9.5W24–846.5W24–8UY
Fri 11/24Tulane vs UTSA-2.5W29–1651.5W29–16UY
Sat 12/2Tulane vs SMU-4.0L14–2650.5L14–26UN
Wed 12/27Tulane vs Virginia Tech+13.5L20–4143.5L20–41ON
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Southern Miss vs Alcorn State-24.0W40–1447.5W40–14OY
Sat 9/9Southern Miss at Florida State+31.0L13–6654.0L13–66ON
Sat 9/16Southern Miss vs Tulane+8.0L3–2147.5L3–21UN
Sat 9/23Southern Miss at Arkansas State-7.0L37–4446.5L37–44ON
Sat 9/30Southern Miss vs Texas State+6.5L36–5060.0L36–50ON
Sat 10/7Southern Miss vs Old Dominion-3.0L13–1756.5L13–17UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/17Southern Miss at South Alabama+18.5L3–5551.0L3–55ON
Sat 10/28Southern Miss at App State+16.0L38–4855.5L38–48OY
Sat 11/4Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-3.0W24–756.0W24–7UY
Thu 11/9Southern Miss at Louisiana+8.5W34–3151.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/18Southern Miss at Mississippi State+18.5L20–4147.5L20–41ON
Sat 11/25Southern Miss vs Troy+16.5L17–3548.5L17–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Tulane PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Tulane #70
+0.430
Southern Miss #109
+0.279
Tulane Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Tulane #40
+0.675
Southern Miss #114
+0.387
Tulane Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Tulane #29
0.181
Southern Miss #73
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tulane Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Tulane #91
+7.769
Southern Miss #121
+6.775
Tulane Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Tulane #61
+0.846
Southern Miss #121
+0.777
Tulane Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Tulane #6
66.3
Southern Miss #109
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tulane Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tulane Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Tulane
-0.1
Southern Miss
-12.9
Offense Rating
Tulane
14.5
Southern Miss
8.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Tulane
14.6
Southern Miss
21.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Tulane Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Tulane #32
1.50
Southern Miss #85
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulane #45
0.50
Southern Miss #127
4.00
Tulane +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tulane Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Tulane #1
60.4
Southern Miss #1
48.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulane #15
22.5
Southern Miss #115
47.6
Tulane +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Tulane. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Tulane
Willie Fritz #1
45–46 (50%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Slade Nagle Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Sam Gregg Yr 2 #1
DC Dan O'Brien Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself