Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
Tulane✈ 106 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Tulane
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tulane entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Tulane wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Tulane wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tulane -8
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulane
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tulane 2023 Schedule
Tulane's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Tulane vs South Alabama | -6.0W37–17 | 51.0 | W37–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Tulane vs Ole Miss | +8.0L20–37 | 64.0 | L20–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Tulane at Southern Miss | -8.0W21–3 | 47.5 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Tulane vs Nicholls | -38.0W36–7 | 55.5 | W36–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Tulane vs UAB | -22.5W35–23 | 59.5 | W35–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/13 | Tulane at Memphis | -4.5W31–21 | 54.5 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Tulane vs North Texas | -20.0W35–28 | 63.5 | W35–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Tulane at Rice | -10.0W30–28 | 55.0 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Tulane at East Carolina | -17.0W13–10 | 46.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Tulane vs Tulsa | -24.5W24–22 | 52.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Tulane at Florida Atlantic | -9.5W24–8 | 46.5 | W24–8 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Tulane vs UTSA | -2.5W29–16 | 51.5 | W29–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Tulane vs SMU | -4.0L14–26 | 50.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Tulane vs Virginia Tech | +13.5L20–41 | 43.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Southern Miss vs Alcorn State | -24.0W40–14 | 47.5 | W40–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Southern Miss at Florida State | +31.0L13–66 | 54.0 | L13–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Southern Miss vs Tulane | +8.0L3–21 | 47.5 | L3–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -7.0L37–44 | 46.5 | L37–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | +6.5L36–50 | 60.0 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Southern Miss vs Old Dominion | -3.0L13–17 | 56.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | +18.5L3–55 | 51.0 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Southern Miss at App State | +16.0L38–48 | 55.5 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -3.0W24–7 | 56.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | +8.5W34–31 | 51.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Southern Miss at Mississippi State | +18.5L20–41 | 47.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Southern Miss vs Troy | +16.5L17–35 | 48.5 | L17–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tulane. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tulane
Willie Fritz #1
45–46 (50%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Slade Nagle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shiel Wood
Yr 1
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dan O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

