Fri, Nov 10 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Cajun Field
Lafayette, LA
·
Turf
·
36,900 cap
Southern Miss✈ 178 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana -8.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisiana
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Southern Miss vs Alcorn State | -24.0W40–14 | 47.5 | W40–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Southern Miss at Florida State | +31.0L13–66 | 54.0 | L13–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Southern Miss vs Tulane | +8.0L3–21 | 47.5 | L3–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -7.0L37–44 | 46.5 | L37–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | +6.5L36–50 | 60.0 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Southern Miss vs Old Dominion | -3.0L13–17 | 56.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | +18.5L3–55 | 51.0 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Southern Miss at App State | +16.0L38–48 | 55.5 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -3.0W24–7 | 56.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | +8.5W34–31 | 51.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Southern Miss at Mississippi State | +18.5L20–41 | 47.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Southern Miss vs Troy | +16.5L17–35 | 48.5 | L17–35 | O | N |
Louisiana 2023 Schedule
Louisiana's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Louisiana vs Northwestern State | -35.0W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Louisiana at Old Dominion | -6.0L31–38 | 51.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisiana at UAB | +2.0W41–21 | 60.0 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisiana vs Buffalo | -10.5W45–38 | 57.5 | W45–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Louisiana at Minnesota | +9.5L24–35 | 49.0 | L24–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Louisiana vs Texas State | -1.0W34–30 | 67.5 | W34–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Louisiana vs Georgia State | -3.0L17–20 | 62.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Louisiana at South Alabama | +11.5W33–20 | 55.0 | W33–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisiana at Arkansas State | -9.0L17–37 | 60.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 11/9 | Louisiana vs Southern Miss | -8.5L31–34 | 51.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisiana at Troy | +17.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Louisiana vs UL Monroe | -12.5W52–21 | 53.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Louisiana vs Jacksonville State | +3.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Southern Miss
25.5 — 27.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Southern Miss won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dan O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
9–8 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 2
#1
DC
LaMar Morgan
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓