Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oklahoma entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Oklahoma wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Oklahoma wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas -4
O/U 62.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oklahoma
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oklahoma vs Arkansas State | -36.0W73–0 | 57.5 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oklahoma vs SMU | -16.5W28–11 | 68.5 | W28–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oklahoma at Tulsa | -28.0W66–17 | 58.5 | W66–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Oklahoma at Cincinnati | -13.0W20–6 | 58.0 | W20–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Oklahoma vs Iowa State | -19.5W50–20 | 48.5 | W50–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | +4.0W34–30 | 62.0 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Oklahoma vs UCF | -17.0W31–29 | 67.5 | W31–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Oklahoma at Kansas | -7.0L33–38 | 66.5 | L33–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Oklahoma at Oklahoma State | -6.0L24–27 | 61.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Oklahoma vs West Virginia | -13.5W59–20 | 59.5 | W59–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Oklahoma at BYU | -24.5W31–24 | 58.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Oklahoma vs TCU | -12.5W69–45 | 66.5 | W69–45 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Oklahoma vs Arizona | +2.5L24–38 | 59.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Texas 2023 Schedule
Texas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Texas vs Rice | -35.5W37–10 | 59.0 | W37–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Texas at Alabama | +7.0W34–24 | 53.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Texas vs Wyoming | -31.0W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Texas at Baylor | -17.5W38–6 | 49.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Texas vs Kansas | -15.5W40–14 | 61.0 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Texas vs Oklahoma | -4.0L30–34 | 62.0 | L30–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Texas at Houston | -24.0W31–24 | 60.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Texas vs BYU | -20.5W35–6 | 48.5 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Texas vs Kansas State | -4.0W33–30 | 49.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Texas at TCU | -13.0W29–26 | 56.0 | W29–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Texas at Iowa State | -7.5W26–16 | 43.5 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Texas vs Texas Tech | -16.5W57–7 | 53.5 | W57–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Texas vs Oklahoma State | -14.0W49–21 | 55.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Texas vs Washington | -3.0L31–37 | 61.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oklahoma
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma Edge
Oklahoma +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma Edge
Oklahoma +8.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oklahoma
18.1 — 50.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oklahoma won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma
Brent Venables #1
9–7 (56%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 2
#1
DC
Todd Bates
Yr 2
#1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
16–12 (57%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jeff Choate
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓