Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
TCU wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
TCU -41.5
O/U 59.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Nicholls 2023 Schedule
Nicholls's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Nicholls at TCU | +41.5L6–41 | 59.5 | L6–41 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Nicholls at Tulane | +38.0L7–36 | 55.5 | L7–36 | U | Y |
TCU 2023 Schedule
TCU's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | TCU vs Colorado | -20.5L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | TCU vs Nicholls | -41.5W41–6 | 59.5 | W41–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | TCU at Houston | -7.5W36–13 | 64.0 | W36–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | TCU vs SMU | -7.0W34–17 | 63.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | TCU vs West Virginia | -14.0L21–24 | 52.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | TCU at Iowa State | -6.5L14–27 | 52.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | TCU vs BYU | -5.0W44–11 | 52.5 | W44–11 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | TCU at Kansas State | +5.5L3–41 | 60.0 | L3–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/2 | TCU at Texas Tech | +2.5L28–35 | 59.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | TCU vs Texas | +13.0L26–29 | 56.0 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | TCU vs Baylor | -13.0W42–17 | 62.0 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | TCU at Oklahoma | +12.5L45–69 | 66.5 | L45–69 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nicholls Edge
Nicholls +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
TCU Edge
TCU +50.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓