Boston College at Army Week 6 College Football Matchup Boston College at Army Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 7 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Blaik Field at Michie Stadium West Point, NY · Turf · 38,000 cap
Boston College✈ 158 miSame TZ
27 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
25
BC +2.5
Army
23
P&R Line Boston College -2
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Army -2.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Army has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Army entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Army wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Army wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Army -2.5
O/U 47.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boston College · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Army Coming off BYE
Boston College 2023 Schedule
Boston College's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boston College vs Northern Illinois-8.0L24–2750.0L24–27ON
Sat 9/9Boston College vs Holy Cross-10.0W31–2852.0W31–28ON
Sat 9/16Boston College vs Florida State+25.5L29–3148.0L29–31OY
Sat 9/23Boston College at Louisville+14.0L28–5653.0L28–56ON
Sat 9/30Boston College vs Virginia-5.0W27–2452.5W27–24UN
Sat 10/7Boston College at Army+2.5W27–2447.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Boston College at Georgia Tech+5.5W38–2357.0W38–23OY
Sat 10/28Boston College vs UConn-14.5W21–1449.0W21–14UN
Fri 11/3Boston College at Syracuse+3.0W17–1051.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/11Boston College vs Virginia Tech+2.5L22–4848.5L22–48ON
Thu 11/16Boston College at Pittsburgh+1.0L16–2447.0L16–24UN
Fri 11/24Boston College vs Miami+13.5L20–4550.5L20–45ON
Thu 12/28Boston College vs SMU+13.5W23–1449.0W23–14UY
Army 2023 Schedule
Army's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Army at UL Monroe-8.5L13–1747.0L13–17UN
Sat 9/9Army vs Delaware State-39.5W57–044.0W57–0OY
Fri 9/15Army at UTSA+7.0W37–2942.0W37–29OY
Sat 9/23Army at Syracuse+13.0L16–2950.5L16–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Army vs Boston College-2.5L24–2747.0L24–27ON
Sat 10/14Army vs Troy+6.5L0–1941.5L0–19UN
Sat 10/21Army at LSU+33.0L0–6260.0L0–62ON
Sat 10/28Army vs Massachusetts-10.0L14–2149.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/4Army vs Air Force+18.5W23–332.0W23–3UY
Sat 11/11Army vs Holy Cross-11.5W17–1455.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/18Army vs Coastal Carolina+1.5W28–2140.5W28–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 12/9Army vs Navy-2.0W17–1128.0W17–11UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Boston College PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #62
+0.431
Army #99
+0.390
Boston College Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #103
+0.440
Army #51
+0.762
Army Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #130
0.117
Army #127
0.120
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Army Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #66
+6.494
Army #122
+7.477
Army Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #63
+0.879
Army #99
+0.826
Boston College Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #94
71.3
Army #10
67.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Army Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Army Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.1
Army
-1.0
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
Army
14.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
Army
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Army Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #110
0.50
Army #57
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #84
1.50
Army #125
2.00
Army +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Army Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
27.8
Army #1
67.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #88
56.0
Army #73
17.0
Army +40.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Army
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boston College
25.1 — 52.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boston College won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Army with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
16–22 (42%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Steve Shimko Yr 1 #1
DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Army
Jeff Monken #1
66–50 (57%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Matt Drinkall Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself