SMU at Boston College Week 1 College Football Matchup SMU at Boston College Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 28 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Fenway Park Boston, MA · Turf · 38,073 cap
SMU✈ 1,544 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
14 23
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
SMU
34
SMU -13.5
Boston College
19
P&R Line SMU -15
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas SMU -13.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
SMU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor SMU entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
SMU wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
SMU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
SMU -13.5
O/U 49.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → SMU · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Boston College 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 SMU 2nd straight Road Game
SMU 2023 Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.0W38–1466.0W38–14UY
Sat 9/9SMU at Oklahoma+16.5L11–2868.5L11–28UN
Sat 9/16SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W69–063.5W69–0OY
Sat 9/23SMU at TCU+7.0L17–3463.5L17–34UN
Sat 9/30SMU vs Charlotte-22.5W34–1653.0W34–16UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12SMU at East Carolina-11.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Fri 10/20SMU at Temple-24.0W55–053.0W55–0OY
Sat 10/28SMU vs Tulsa-20.5W69–1055.0W69–10OY
Sat 11/4SMU at Rice-12.0W36–3159.5W36–31ON
Fri 11/10SMU vs North Texas-21.5W45–2167.5W45–21UY
Sat 11/18SMU at Memphis-9.5W38–3464.5W38–34ON
Sat 11/25SMU vs Navy-20.0W59–1446.0W59–14OY
Sat 12/2SMU at Tulane+4.0W26–1450.5W26–14UY
Thu 12/28SMU vs Boston College-13.5L14–2349.0L14–23UN
Boston College 2023 Schedule
Boston College's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boston College vs Northern Illinois-8.0L24–2750.0L24–27ON
Sat 9/9Boston College vs Holy Cross-10.0W31–2852.0W31–28ON
Sat 9/16Boston College vs Florida State+25.5L29–3148.0L29–31OY
Sat 9/23Boston College at Louisville+14.0L28–5653.0L28–56ON
Sat 9/30Boston College vs Virginia-5.0W27–2452.5W27–24UN
Sat 10/7Boston College at Army+2.5W27–2447.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Boston College at Georgia Tech+5.5W38–2357.0W38–23OY
Sat 10/28Boston College vs UConn-14.5W21–1449.0W21–14UN
Fri 11/3Boston College at Syracuse+3.0W17–1051.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/11Boston College vs Virginia Tech+2.5L22–4848.5L22–48ON
Thu 11/16Boston College at Pittsburgh+1.0L16–2447.0L16–24UN
Fri 11/24Boston College vs Miami+13.5L20–4550.5L20–45ON
Thu 12/28Boston College vs SMU+13.5W23–1449.0W23–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
SMU #24
+0.540
Boston College #62
+0.246
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
SMU #16
+0.884
Boston College #103
+0.261
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
SMU #14
0.194
Boston College #130
0.117
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
SMU #21
+8.922
Boston College #66
+7.510
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
SMU #46
+0.870
Boston College #63
+0.780
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
SMU #40
69.6
Boston College #94
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
SMU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
SMU
15.2
Boston College
-6.1
Offense Rating
SMU
25.0
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
SMU
9.8
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? SMU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
SMU #35
2.25
Boston College #110
0.46
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #31
0.50
Boston College #84
1.27
SMU +1.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? SMU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
SMU #1
69.3
Boston College #1
31.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #9
18.1
Boston College #88
46.5
SMU +38.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boston College
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boston College
42.3 — 30.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boston College won by 9
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
16–22 (42%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Steve Shimko Yr 1 #1
DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself