Sat, Oct 14 2023
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
Louisville✈ 343 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisville
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Louisville wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Louisville wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisville -7.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisville
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2023 Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | -7.0W39–34 | 49.5 | W39–34 | O | N |
| Thu 9/7 | Louisville vs Murray State | -43.5W56–0 | 55.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisville vs Indiana | -10.0W21–14 | 51.0 | W21–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisville vs Boston College | -14.0W56–28 | 53.0 | W56–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Louisville at NC State | -3.5W13–10 | 56.5 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Louisville vs Notre Dame | +6.5W33–20 | 53.0 | W33–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -7.5L21–38 | 44.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Louisville vs Duke | -5.0W23–0 | 47.0 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisville vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W34–3 | 48.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Louisville vs Virginia | -20.5W31–24 | 49.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisville at Miami | +1.5W38–31 | 46.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -7.5L31–38 | 47.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Louisville vs Florida State | +3.5L6–16 | 51.0 | L6–16 | U | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Louisville vs USC | -4.5L28–42 | 58.0 | L28–42 | O | N |
Pittsburgh 2023 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Pittsburgh vs Wofford | -37.5W45–7 | 49.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati | -6.5L21–27 | 44.5 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Pittsburgh at West Virginia | +2.5L6–17 | 48.0 | L6–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Pittsburgh vs North Carolina | +7.0L24–41 | 49.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech | -3.0L21–38 | 40.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Pittsburgh vs Louisville | +7.5W38–21 | 44.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Pittsburgh at Wake Forest | -3.0L17–21 | 45.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Pittsburgh at Notre Dame | +21.0L7–58 | 45.5 | L7–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Pittsburgh vs Florida State | +21.5L7–24 | 50.0 | L7–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -4.5L13–28 | 37.5 | L13–28 | O | N |
| Thu 11/16 | Pittsburgh vs Boston College | -1.0W24–16 | 47.0 | W24–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Pittsburgh at Duke | +4.5L19–30 | 40.5 | L19–30 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +2.35
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +38.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
39.9 — 39.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisville with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 1
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
63–43 (59%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓