Sun, Dec 3 2023
·
Week 14
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, NC
·
Turf
·
75,412 cap
Louisville✈ 340 miSame TZ
Florida State✈ 386 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida State,
while Game Control favors Louisville.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Louisville wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Florida State -3.5
O/U 51.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisville
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2023 Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | -7.0W39–34 | 49.5 | W39–34 | O | N |
| Thu 9/7 | Louisville vs Murray State | -43.5W56–0 | 55.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisville vs Indiana | -10.0W21–14 | 51.0 | W21–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisville vs Boston College | -14.0W56–28 | 53.0 | W56–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Louisville at NC State | -3.5W13–10 | 56.5 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Louisville vs Notre Dame | +6.5W33–20 | 53.0 | W33–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -7.5L21–38 | 44.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Louisville vs Duke | -5.0W23–0 | 47.0 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisville vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W34–3 | 48.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Louisville vs Virginia | -20.5W31–24 | 49.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisville at Miami | +1.5W38–31 | 46.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -7.5L31–38 | 47.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Louisville vs Florida State | +3.5L6–16 | 51.0 | L6–16 | U | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Louisville vs USC | -4.5L28–42 | 58.0 | L28–42 | O | N |
Florida State 2023 Schedule
Florida State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Florida State vs LSU | +2.0W45–24 | 56.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida State vs Southern Miss | -31.0W66–13 | 54.0 | W66–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida State at Boston College | -25.5W31–29 | 48.0 | W31–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida State at Clemson | -2.0W31–24 | 55.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Florida State vs Virginia Tech | -23.5W39–17 | 52.5 | W39–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -18.5W41–3 | 53.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Florida State vs Duke | -14.0W38–20 | 49.0 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Florida State at Wake Forest | -21.0W41–16 | 53.5 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Florida State at Pittsburgh | -21.5W24–7 | 50.0 | W24–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Florida State vs Miami | -14.5W27–20 | 50.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida State vs North Alabama | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida State at Florida | -6.0W24–15 | 51.0 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Florida State vs Louisville | -3.5W16–6 | 51.0 | W16–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Florida State vs Georgia | +23.5L3–63 | 47.0 | L3–63 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.82
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +2.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida State
56.7 — 15.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida State won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
21–16 (57%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 2
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓